Saturday War of Will, winner of this year's Preakness Stakes after having crossed under the wire eighth in the Derby, will be seeking to join that group in the 151st running of the Belmont Stakes. Needless to say I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take a run at The All Grade 1 Pick Four ending with The Test of Champions at beautiful Belmont Park.
RACE 8 - The Woody Stephens (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Mind Control (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 1 Honest Mischief (ML 6-1)
# 4 Complexity (ML 4-1)
# 11 Wendell Fong (ML 10-1)
C's
# 2 Much Better (ML 5-1)
# 3 Borracho (ML 15-1)
# 5 Landeskog (ML 12-1)
# 6 Nitrous (ML 10-1)
# 7 Strike Silver (ML 20-1)
# 8 Hog Creek Hustle (ML 20-1)
# 10 Lexitonian (ML 15-1)
Mind Control should probably be a big ticket single here, a line that I may be repeating later this afternoon. But Mind Control typically does not run his best off a freshening, his victory in his initial contest this year being the one exception. So for that reason, it seemed like a good idea for me to spread a bit here.
Honest Mischief looks to be the one that will be running best late. Complexity, making his 2019 debut, projects to be a pace presence early, and appears well meant here. Wendell Fong won comfortably last time out in a race where he didn't appear to be at his best. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Metropolitan Handicap (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 McKenzie (ML 5-2)
B's
# 3 Mitole (ML 3-1)
C's
# 1 Coal Front (ML 6-1)
# 4 Thunder Snow (Ire) (ML 5-1)
# 5 Tale of Silence (ML 30-1)
# 6 Promises Fulfilled (ML 12-1)
# 7 Firenze Fire (ML 4-1)
# 8 Pavel (ML 20-1)
# 9 Prince Lucky (ML 12-1)
No surprises here as I land on the two shortest prices in the field, as I think these two are clearly better than the rest of the competition. Firenze Fire is one that you might want to consider adding to your main play, as Firenze Fire certainly has an affinity for this main track. But ultimately I decided to play my hand with just McKenzie and Mitole, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - The Manhattan (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Inner Turf
A's
# 8 Bricks and Mortar (ML 7-5)
B's
# 4 Qurbaan (ML 8-1)
# 7 Olympico (Fr) (ML 6-1)
# 10 Channel Maker (ML 9-2)
C's
# 1 Raging Bull (Fr) (ML 10-1)
# 2 Catcho En Die (Arg) (ML 20-1)
# 3 Robert Bruce (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Cat (ML 20-1)
# 6 Bandua (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 9 Epical (ML 15-1)
Bricks and Mortar could possibly be a single here; though I think it's worth considering that Bricks and Mortar's last defeat was also the last time that he competed over this inner turf course.
Qurbaan, a half length behind Bricks and Mortar at the wire last time out, has the talent to win here; though Qurbaan does seem to settle for too many minor awards. Olympico (Fr) was a clear winner over this turf course last time out in the Grade 3 Fort Marcy.
Channel Maker is a multiple Grade 1 winner who may need more distance to show his best. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 11 - The Belmont (Grade 1) - Twelve Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 Tax (ML 15-1)
B's
# 9 War of Will (ML 2-1)
# 10 Tacitus (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Joevia (ML 30-1)
# 2 Everfast (ML 12-1)
# 3 Master Fencer (Jpn) (ML 8-1)
# 5 Bourbon War (ML 12-1)
# 6 Spinoff (ML 15-1)
# 7 Sir Winston (ML 12-1)
# 8 Intrepid Heart (ML 10-1)
If it turns out that Tax just didn't care for the slop in the Kentucky Derby, then Tax should revert to form Saturday as the track will be Fast; and the added distance combined with a better timed run could get him to the line in front of Tacitus.
I didn't much care for War of Will in the Preakness; because while I felt that he was comprised in the Kentucky Derby, I don't think he would have finished significantly better in that contest; and even if you put a line through the Kentucky Derby, you also have to forgive his performance in the Louisiana Derby. But War of Will's Preakness win does prove that this is a horse to be reckoned with.
Tacitus is probably the best horse in this field; though it may be significant that he did not hit the board in his only prior contest over this main track. Or it may not; as it was his debut. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 9 with 2 with 8 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,4,9,11 with 2,3 with 4,7,8,10 with 4,9,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,3,5,6,7,8,10 with 2 with 8 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 1,4,5,6,7,8,9 with 8 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 9 with 2 with 8 with 1,2,3,5,6,7,8 $3.50
Total: $62.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 4:04 EDT / 1:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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