"For the first half of your life, people tell you what you should do; for the second half, they tell you what you should have done." - Richard J. Needham
Grass is where it's at; at least as far as Saturday's play goes, as seventy-five percent of the contests I'll be analyzing are scheduled for the turf. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Canterbury Park.
RACE 6 - [S] Clm $25k N3L - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Smooth Stroke (Morning Line 2-1)
B’s
# 2 Brysons Confession (ML 6-1)
# 3 Candy Cove (ML 7-2)
C's
# 4 Drama in Danube (ML 5-2)
# 5 Last Minister (ML 8-1)
# 6 Classy Individual (ML 12-1)
The last time Smooth Stroke competed in a contest limited to Minnesota breds he won by five lengths. Brysons Confession is going first off the claim for Trainer Karl Broberg, who tends to do well with such.
Candy Cove took the Show at this class level last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else, including Last Minister, who is racing above his conditions, having as he does just one lifetime victory.
RACE 7 - (F) OC 25k/N2X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Ari Gia (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 6 Sierrita (ML 6-1)
C's
# 1 Team Hollywood (ML 4-1)
# 2 Brechin's Command (ML 2-1)
# 4 Kalliste Rose (ML 8-1)
# 5 Saucy At Midnight (ML 12-1)
Pretty standard conditions for an OC/N2X. For those who track such things, Team Hollywood, Brechin's Command, and Sierrita are the ones competing with the $25k price tag on their heads; while the other half of the field is not up for sale.
Ari Gia returns just seven days after disappointing as the Post Time Favorite in the Hoist Her Flag Stakes. Quick turnaround not withstanding, Ari Gia looks to be much the best here; and if Ari Gia repeats any of her last four efforts, she should win comfortably today. Still, as a safeguard against Ari Gia having tired legs, I'm also going to put Sierrita on the big ticket, allowing for the possibility that Sierrita might run down Ari Gia late. The rest of the field is being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 8 - OC 15k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Mr. Benz (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 4 Master Guns (ML 6-1)
# 6 Deflater (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Sendmethemoney (ML 5-1)
# 3 Saved by Zero (ML 9-2)
# 5 Agent McGee (ML 10-1)
# 8 Samurai Mike (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 7 World Famous Sam T (ML 12-1), who was entered for the main track only
The final two races on the card have identical conditions, and can thus be thought of as two divisions of the same contest. Mr. Benz, Saved by Zero, and Samurai Mike are the ones that will be entering the starting gate with the $15k price tag on their heads.
Mr. Benz, trained by Karl Broberg, has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in three of his last four starts. But in two of those four contests Mr. Benz was behind a next out winner; while in the one victory in that quartet he crossed under the wire in front of one; so Mr. Benz was certainly running well, even in defeat. I expect the competition to be somewhat softer for Mr. Benz here than it has been of late (despite the higher claiming price Saturday); which, combined with the return to the turf, should make Mr. Benz the one to beat here.
Master Guns, who disappointed as the Post Time Favorite at this class level last time out, could benefit from the reduction in real estate. Deflater is trying the turf for the first time; his breeding suggests that he should handle it just fine.
RACE 9 - OC 15k/N1X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Kota Copy (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 4 Satellite Storm (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Northland Gold (ML 12-1)
# 3 Hotfoot (ML 10-1)
# 5 Marvelous Thunder (ML 3-1)
# 6 Dyna Cat (ML 7-2)
# 7 Superior's Boy (ML 8-1)
The final two races on the card have identical conditions, and can thus be thought of as two divisions of the same contest. Marvelous Thunder and Dyna Cat are the two in this field that are not up for sale; and if you want to purchase Northland Gold through the claim box it'll cost you $20k, the $5k surcharge being because Northland Gold is a Minnesota bred.
Kota Copy, trained by Robertino Diodoro, has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in both of his last two starts, while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite. Satellite Storm looks quickest here; and if Satellite Storm takes to the turf, then Satellite Storm will be tough to catch. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1 with 3 with 2 with 1 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3 with 3,6 with 2,4,6 with 1,4 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 4,5,6 with 3 with 2 with 1 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,2,4,5 with 2 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 1,3,5,8 with 1 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 3 with 2 with 2,3,5,6,7 $2.50
Total: $27.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 4:17 EDT / 1:17 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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