RACE 9 - [S] The Confucius Say $50k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 In the Fairway (Morning Line 2-1)
C's
# 8 Wise Mac (ML 5-2)
I think it's fair to toss In the Fairway's last outing, being as it was after a four month vacation and on an off track (making In the Fairway oh-for-four lifetime when the track is not fast). In the Fairway is the clear class of the field, and that 85 Beyer Speed Figure he earned two starts back is better than anything anyone else in the field shows in their recent form.
Wise Mac is a lightly raced four year old gelding who is a perfect three-for-three over the Charles Town track. His speed figures are light, but all his wins have been by daylight, which suggests that he may have more in the tank than what he's shown.
RACE 10 - The Robert Hilton Memorial $100k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Rise Up (ML 2-1)
C's
# 8 Germaniac (4-1)
Those of you with good memories may recall that I placed a two dollar Win wager on Rise Up in The Kentucky Derby Futures Pool One last year at 50-1. Well that money's gone; hopefully Rise Up can help us add a few dollars to the bankroll tonight. After spending the past few months competing for a spot in the Kentucky Derby field, Rise Up will no doubt appreciate the class relief he gets here. My only concern is that Rise Up hasn't competed in a sprint since August; hence the use of Germaniac, a winner at tonight's distance in a listed stakes at Laurel in January, as a backup.
RACE 11 - (F) The Sugar Maple $200k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Wardelle (ML 20-1)
# 3 Quiet Success (ML 7-2)
# 4 Prize Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 More Than a Cruise (ML 8-1)
# 8 Flattering Bea (ML 10-1)
C's
# 6 Rusticana (ML 8-1)
# 9 Saturday Surprise (ML 10-1)
Needless to say, the decision of the connections of # 2 My Pal Chrisy (ML 2-1) and # 10 Saturday Nthe Park (ML 6-1) to run their horses elsewhere today has a major impact as to how this race projects.
Wardelle is a stakes winner over the Charles Town track, having taken The Pink Ribbon back in September, which was run at tonight's distance of seven furlongs. Quiet Success ships up from Louisiana where she's earned back-to-back wins.
The last time Prize Winner got to run at tonight's distance on a fast dirt track she not only won but she also earned a Beyer that fits right in with the top contenders in this field. More Than a Cruise, a winner in Maryland bred stakes company last time out, has yet to finish out of the Exacta at tonight's distance. Flattering Bea is three-for-four lifetime over the Charles Town track, the one loss coming when she finished behind Wardelle in The Pink Ribbon.
RACE 12 - The Charles Town Classic (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Clubhouse Ride (ML 6-1)
# 5 Long River (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Moreno (ML 3-1)
# 3 Game On Dude (ML 4-5)
There's no denying that # 3 Game On Dude (ML 4-5) is the class of the field; indeed, he's going to be the class of pretty much any field that he's in. But there's also no denying that The Dude has become a need to lead type horse; if he's not comfortably ahead early, he's not going to run his best; and once he's passed, he's done. And with Moreno to his left and # 4 Ruler of Love (ML 20-1) to his right, Game On Dude is not getting a comfortable early lead tonight. Because of their class I can't see leaving The Dude or Moreno completely off the ticket; but this one looks like it'll be won by someone not fighting for the early lead.
Clubhouse Ride missed by half a length of winning this event last year. Long River ships down from New York after just missing by two necks of coming into tonight's contest with a five race winning streak. Note Long River's ability to come from off the pace on the inner Aqueduct winterized track.
Okay; that's the analysis. I won't be getting too fancy tonight, as I'll just be punching two tickets:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,3,4,5,8 with 1,5 $20.00
All Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8 with 3,8 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 with 1,2,3,5 $56.00
Total: $76.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 8:45 EDT / 5:45 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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