We're getting close to the finish line for Hollywood Park, as we're just a week away from the final Sunday of thoroughbred racing at the Inglewood, California racetrack. No time for sentimentality now, however, as we turn our attention to today's Late Pick Four.
RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k- Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Amina Perfect (Morning Line 8-1)
# 6 Sugar High Kaylin (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Rich in Tradition (ML 5-1)
# 5 Full of Spice (ML 8-1)
# 10 Bab's Rules (ML 9-2)
# 12 Blazing Dancer (ML 20-1)
The two horses I liked best in this field were the Also Eligibles (Graduator and Circular Logic) neither of whom drew in. Amina Perfect is a first time starter in a field without a legitimate star. Sugar High Kaylin just missed by a length at this level last time out; but as she runs for a trainer (Doug O'Neill) who usually has his horses ready to go at first asking, she may not show much improvement today. Then again, against this field, she may not need to.
Rich in Tradition is oh-for-nineteen. That would generally be an automatic toss, but the new rider coupled with the weak field suggests that she may win by default. Toss out Full of Spice's last effort; Trainer Peter Miller took her blinkers off and Full of Spice took that as a sign that she was just out for a jog. The blinkers go back on today.
Bab's Rules and Blazing Dancer are both making the big drop from MSW (State Bred Division) to Maiden Claiming; the fact that neither could be bothered to pick up their feet in their prior efforts is what keeps them as "C" contenders rather than "A's".
RACE 7 - (F) Clm $25k N2L - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Horsesanddivorces (ML 3-1)
# 7 Real Bright Boots (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Akiss Forarose (ML 7-2)
# 8 Kilted Tilt (Ire) (ML 4-1)
In a field of eight horses with just one career victory each, Horsesanddivorces is the only entrant to have their one career win come over this Hollywood Park turf course. Not sure if she was injured in her last contest; the bullet work on the dirt at Santa Anita would suggest that she's in shape, but note that this is just the second time in her career that Horsesanddivorces is competing with a price tag on her head.
Real Bright Boots looks to be the controlling speed here; maybe today Jockey Rafael Bejarano can get her to hold onto the lead until the wire. Akiss Forarose seems to have gotten too comfortable with in-the-money finishes; perhaps the turnback in distance will allow Jockey Corey Nakatani to get her to cross the wire first before she realizes that she's won. Kilted Tilt (Ire) is a question mark as she may have just needed that last race, or she may be still be injured. The bullet work over the main track on 12/9 suggests that she's ready to roll; but note that she also had a sharp work on 11/4 before finishing up the track in her start three days later.
RACE 8 - (F) The Playa Del Rey $100k - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Teddy's Promise (ML 8-5)
# 3 Judy In Disguise (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Rumor (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 There Is No Limit (ML 8-1)
Teddy's Promise and Rumor represent the class of the field. Teddy's Promise is more of a horse for the course than Rumor (five-for-eleven lifetime over this main track vs one-for-three for Rumor) while Rumor has had more success at today's distance (three-for-four in her career vs one-for-five for Teddy's Promise).
Judy In Disguise (GB) makes her debut on the Hollywood Park main track; she's one-for-two on synthetic surfaces elsewhere. There Is No Limit is four-for-five in her career on this Hollywood main track, while being five-for-eight in her career at today's distance. Granted, all that has come against weaker; but There Is No Limit looks to be a horse on the improve, and her Beyer Speed Figures suggest that she belongs against this field.
RACE 9 - MSW - Six Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Bourne Hot (ML 5-2)
C's
# 3 Argentine (ML 20-1)
# 4 Home Run Kitten (ML 4-1)
# 8 Geldautomat (ML 6-1)
# 10 Closet E (ML 5-1)
Bourne Hot, trained by Doug O'Neil, took a nice step forward his last time out in his first career turf sprint, leading most of the way before being passed by Global View, winner of last month's Grade 3 Generous Stakes; a repeat of that effort should give Bourne Hot his first win today.
Argentine is a first time starter from a sire whose progeny do quite well at first asking. Likewise for Home Run Kitten, who was sired by Kitten's Joy. Geldautomat disappointed as the Post Time Favorite his last time out; he should appreciate the extra furlong of real estate that he gets to run over today. Closet E is the other Doug O'Neil entrant, making his first start for the O'Neil barn after being claimed his last time out.
OK, that's the analysis. Here's how it looks on tickets:
Play this one for a dollar:
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $12.00
Play these for fifty cents:
RACE 6: 1, 5, 10, 12
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $12.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 2, 8
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $6.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 5
RACE 9: 2
Cost: $2.00
RACE 6: 3, 6
RACE 7: 3, 7
RACE 8: 2, 3, 4
RACE 9: 3, 4, 8, 10
Cost: $24.00
TOTAL COST: $56.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:00 EST / 3:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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