We turn our attention to the left coast today, as we take a run at Sunday's Pick Five at Hollywood Park. All five races are sprints, and three of the five are for two year olds.
RACE 1 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Crushed Velvet (Morning Line 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Lady Bugatti (ML 4-1)
# 3 Artemis (ML 2-1)
Artemis ran well in her debut last month, taking the show after a poor start. Normally she would be a solid “A” contender. But Artemis is trained by Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer, and, typically, Hollendorfer has his charges ready to roll first time out; so if they don’t win their debut, they tend not to win at second asking.
Crushed Velvet (trained by Bob Baffert) is making her debut and draws the rail; generally speaking, this is not a good combination. Factor in that the rail has not fared well in sprints during this final Hollywood Park meet and our decision to make Crushed Velvet a single “A” contender looks, well, rather odd. But Jockey Martin Garcia has been hot this meet, and just yesterday, in Race 2 over this track, Garcia brought home a Baffert trained two year old making his debut from the rail in a six furlong sprint. So here’s hoping that the Garcia/Baffert duo can do it again today.
RACE 2 - Clm $50k - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Amazing Hearted (ML 5-2)
# 6 Charlie’sboywins (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 2 Carbonite (ML 3-1)
# 5 First Strike (ML 7-2)
Charlie’sboywins has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, and it was earned over this main track at a distance of six and a half furlongs against N2X Optional Claimers. I personally think that Charlie’sboywins is an excellent play in the Win Pool in this event, though I suspect that he won’t go off at odds quite so generous as his 6-1 Morning Line.
Amazing Hearted broke his maiden in his debut over this main track, and then won at today’s level in his next contest. The step back in his last race could be a concern; for while the rise in class offers a reasonable excuse, we are talking about a five year old gelding with only three lifetime races, suggesting that he’s no stranger to health issues. But if Amazing Hearted can run back to his effort two starts back he’ll get his picture taken once again.
Carbonite is three-for-five in his career over this main track; but this is a step up the class ladder. First Strike has captured the Place three of the five times that Trainer Robertino Diodoro has brought him over from Arizona to Hollywood Park. During the summer Diodoro brought First Strike to Del Mar and watched him win clear against $32k open claimers at odds of 15-2.
RACE 3 - Md $50k- Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 3 Rocked Twice (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Fulmerized (ML 2-1)
EDIT - # 4 Smiley Eagle (ML 5-1) has been scratched from today’s race.
Rocked Start is making her third career start, but first against maiden company. Rocked Twice has the best Tomlinson Rating for today’s distance, and Trainer Kory Owens does quite well when shipping horses in from Arizona. Rocked Twice’s grandsire is In Excess (Ire) which suggests that the synthetic surface should not prevent any difficulties.
# 2 Fulmerized should be quick out of the gate, especially with the addition of blinkers. But Fulmerized’s trainer, Doug O’Neill, does not do well with maidens making their second start.
RACE 4 - The Hollywood Turf Express $100k - Six Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Boat Trip (ML 4-1)
# 2 No Silent (ML 3-1)
# 3 Chips All In (ML 9-5)
# 5 Unbridled’s Note (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are the class of the field, as they each have career earnings on grass of over $300k. Boat Trip and No Silent are the local heros, as they each sport career records of three wins in four tries over the Hollywood Park turf course, while Chips All In and Unbridled’s Note are a combined oh-for-one over the same surface. This one looks very competitive on paper; we’ll see how it plays out at the track.
RACE 5 - (F) Md $50k- Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Hey Pretty Girl (ML 5-1)
# 4 Exotic Behavior (ML 9-5)
# 5 Perched (2-1)
C’s
# 3 Yesterday Sings (ML 10-1)
# 6 Senza Fina (ML 8-1)
Hey Pretty Girl is a first timer going for Hollendorfer who, as previously mentioned, does quite well with those. Exotic Behavior (trained by Bob Baffert) and Perched (trained by Doug O’Neill) are both competing for the first time with a price tag on their heads. Senza Fina is another making the big drop from MSW to Md Clm; however, unlike Exotic Behavior and Perched, Senza Fina was unable to finish in the money against the non-claimers. Yesterday Sings was a tough cut from the “A” contender ranks to the “C” level; I expect to put a few bucks on her nose in the Win Pool just in case, especially if I should still be alive going into this final leg and she’s in a position to blow up my tickets.
OK, that's the analysis. We'll be playing all tickets today for fifty cents. Normally we'll play the all "A's" ticket for a dollar, but as we're using single "A's" in two of the five legs who are not the Morning Line Favorites, I think we'll get a fair enough price should the ticket pay off without having to double up on it. And also note that I'm posting this more than an hour before first post; so if there are any key scratches, the below will likely be changed. So with all that, here's how today's tickets look:
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 2, 3
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $24.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 2, 5
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 2
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 2, 4, 5
Cost: $12.00
RACE 1: 1
RACE 2: 3, 6
RACE 3: 3
RACE 4: 1, 2, 3, 5
RACE 5: 3, 6
Cost: $8.00
TOTAL COST: $68.00
Post Time for Race 1 @ Hollywood Park Sunday is 3:30 EST / 12:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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