Today’s 7th Race @ Hollywood Park is DRF.com's Race of the Day, so you can get free Past Performances at their website, along with video analysis by a couple of guys who actually know what they're talking about. Due to other obligations I don't expect to be making any multi-race wagers today. However, Hollywood Park’s Race 7 is such a near perfect example of a race being written for a specific horse that I thought it was worth commenting upon here.
The conditions for Race 7 are as follows:
Three year olds and upward:
1) Which have never won $10,000 three times (other than in maiden races, or claiming races, or races restricted to state bred horses); OR
2) Which have never won four races; OR
3) Which have not won a race at a mile or over since May 1, 2012; OR
4) Which will run for a claiming price of $80,000.
OK; last condition first: if you’re willing to risk having your horse purchased for $80k, you can enter your horse in this event. In fact, three of the seven horses entered in this field (# 1 El Commodore (Morning Line 5-2); # 2 Code of Conduct (ML 4-1); and # 4 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 12-1)) will be competing with the $80k price tag on their heads.
But suppose you’re the connections of # 6 Dubai You X Y Z (ML 7-2) (and, by the way, isn’t that a great name for a horse?) and you don’t want to take a chance on having your horse claimed away; then what? Dubai You X Y Z has won five career races, so he doesn’t meet condition number two. Four of his five wins were for more than ten grand in races that don’t meet the exception list in condition number one, so that condition is a no go.
So what about condition number three? Well, as it turns out, the last time Dubai You X Y Z won a race at a distance of a mile or longer was on April 27, 2012; just a few days before the May 1, 2012 cutoff. Pretty convenient, huh?
Obviously, race conditions don’t write themselves. They’re drawn up by the track’s racing secretary, in consultation with the other track officials. So it’s a pretty safe bet that the May 1, 2012 date wasn’t just picked at random, but rather was chosen in order to give the connections of Dubai You X Y Z an event that they could enter their horse in that was neither a stakes nor one where the horse could be claimed. And there’s nothing nefarious nor underhanded about it; it is, in fact, the racing secretary’s job to ensure that all horses on the grounds have at least one race every few weeks that they are eligible to enter.
Also keep in mind that the fact that the racing secretary has written a race specifically with Dubai You X Y Z in mind is no guarantee that the horse will win. This is a pretty competitive field, and it contains at least a couple of Graded Stakes placed entrants. But I personally like his chances against this field, and I expect to have a few bucks on Dubai You X Y Z’s nose at Post Time (which, incidentally, is 6:33 EST / 3:33 PST).
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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