A Sunday of beginnings and endings, as we come to the final Sunday of 2013, but the first Sunday of the new elongated Santa Anita meet. Today's Late Pick Four is an all female affair, with all four legs restricted to runners on the distaff side. There's a Graded Stakes, a down the hill charge on the grass, and a couple of maiden events. Should be fun; Good Lord willing, it will also be profitable.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $32k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Cayanna (ML 8-1)
# 10 Joeandbetty'sbaby (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 7 All On the Table (ML 6-1)
# 9 Creditcardroulette (ML 10-1)
Joeandbetty'sbaby won a Starter Allowance back in October charging down this hill. While the competition will be much tougher today, the Beyer Speed Figure that she earned that day should get the job done today. Joeandbetty'sbaby also has a late running style which should serve her quite well against this field. Bejarano, who was on board for that October victory, will be in the saddle again today.
Cayanna just missed at this level over this surface her last time out. But that was back in February; and Cayanna's trainer, Doug O'Neill (who also trains Joeandbetty'sbaby) does not have a good record with runners returning from a vacation of greater than six months. However, I think Cayanna can be competitive against this field even if she doesn't fire her best shot.
As I'm taking a stand against the front runners in this event, All On the Table is one that would normally get tossed as well. But her blinkers are coming off for this one, and she has shown the ability to rate in the past. All On the Table isn't the best horse in this field (in my opinion), or even one of the three best horses in this field; but if she can be kept out the early pace battle that I believe will define this race, then the potential for upset is definitely here. For that same reason I'll be adding Creditcardroulette to the mix; the late running style just might carry the day.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Fashion Plate (ML 7-2)
# 8 Beverly the Boss (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
Had she not scratched, I would have used # 2 Star Sighting (ML 3-1) as an "A" Contender as well.
Fashion Plate took a big step forward last time out in her second career start, taking the Show at this level earlier this month at Hollywood Park. If her form carries over from the cushion track to real dirt (and, based upon her bullet works over this track back in November, there's no reason why it shouldn't) Fashion Plate should join the ranks of winners today.
Beverly the Boss is by a sire whose progeny win over 20% of the time their first time out. Beverly the Boss is also trained by Peter Miller, who has a .23 Winning Percentage with first time starters. If Fashion Plate should fail to fire, Beverly the Boss strikes me as the logical choice to get her picture taken when this one is over.
RACE 8 - (F) The Robert J Frankel (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Stormy Lucy (ML 9-2)
# 7 Customer Base (ML 3-1)
# 9 Appealing (Ire) (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 2 Playful Humor (ML 15-1)
# 3 Moone's My Name (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Gulsary (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Champagneandcaviar (ML 10-1)
Stormy Lucy won by four two starts back over multiple Graded Stakes winner (and odds-on favorite) Halo Dolly. Appealing (Ire) just missed by a head taking the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon, finishing in front of (among others) Customer Base. However, it was Customer Base crossing the wire ahead of Appealing in the Grade 2 Goldikova in their last contest. No doubt all three "A" Contenders will be grateful that they won't be facing Egg Drop yet again.
It took Playful Humor ten starts to finally break her maiden; but once she figured out that she wasn't entered in races just to have an afternoon jog with her friends she has performed quite nicely, winning three of her last four. This will be a big step up the class ladder for Playful Humor, but Trainer Neil Drysdale is no stranger to winning Graded Stakes at nice prices. Note that Playful Humor has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in this field.
While still one to be reckoned with, I don't see Moone's My Name (GB) getting the nice easy lead today that she got while wiring the field her last time out. Gulsary (ML 4-1) is the other half of an uncoupled entry with Customer Base, as both are owned by Glen Hill Farm and trained by Thomas Proctor.
Champagneandcaviar is the only entrant in this field with a win at today's distance on the grass, which she did two starts back over this turf course at Final Odds of 57-1.
I don't see any clear standout in this field, as none of the entrants show a Graded Stakes win in their recent (ten race) form. The three "A" Contenders all show efforts in their last two races which, if repeated, should bring them victory today. But in my opinion this is a wide open affair, and one in which I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $30k- Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Grammy Times Six (ML 4-1)
# 8 Impeccably (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Raja's Rose (ML 8-1)
# 4 Cheeky Stone (ML 8-1)
# 5 Mini Candy (ML 4-1)
Grammy Times Six gets some much need class relief. She's shown speed in each of her two career starts, and draws the rail today. Impeccably goes for a conditioner (Adam Kitchingman) who gets 21% winners out of Maiden Claimers, to go along with a .15 Winning Percentage when moving his runners from turf to dirt.
Raja's Rose best career outings have come when she was routing on real dirt. Cheeky Stone flashed some early foot in her two career starts sprinting on the plastic; expect her to be up close early. Mini Candy disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in her debut, when she barley picked up her feet. The fact that Bejarano stays on board is promising, as is her having the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field.
I'll be playing the tickets Crist style, as usual (that is, one ticket uses nothing but the "A" Contenders in each leg; while other tickets use the "A" Contenders in three of the four legs, and the "C" Contenders in the other). If you play the “All A’s” Ticket for a buck, and the three “Three A’s with a C” tickets for fifty cents each, your total cost will be $70.00.
Post time for Race 6 is 6:03 EST / 3:03 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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