1/5/23 Turfway Park Late Pick Four - Preview

“Work like there is someone working 24 hours a day to take it away from you.” - Mark Cuban

I really don't have anything to say by way of introduction here.  Oh, I know; I can reiterate something I Tweeted earlier under the #TDiHR; that being, that on this day, January 5, forty-three years ago, Spectacular Bid won the Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita.  No, seriously; that's all I've got.  So with that let's just get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.

RACE 5 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 6 Miranda Rights (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 2 Scat Tu Tap (ML 6-1)+

# 4 Accidental Hero (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Donegal Arrow (ML 7-2)+
# 3 Monba Quake (ML 50-1)

# 5 Noted Talent (ML 5-1)+

# 8 Raven's Nest (ML 20-1)

# 9 Connect Me (ML 20-1)
# 12 Yes Point (ML 15-1)+

Scratch # 7 Accident (ML 6-1); # 13 River in Egypt (ML 12-1); and # 14 Boudin (ML 15-1)

Okay, here's the way I see it: In my humble opinion, you either single the Brad Cox first time starter Donegal Arrow, or you leave him off the big ticket.  There's just little point in multiplying the cost of a big ticket that contains Donegal Arrow, because he is going to draw a ton of money, thus making for a severe downward effect on the pool's payout should he win.

With that being said, as you can see from my selections, there are other directions that you could go in this leg should you desire to fade Donegal Arrow.  Scat Tu Tap has shown enough early foot in each of his two turf starts to suggest that he will be the one that they'll have to catch if they want to win.  Miranda Rights took the Place while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  Connect Me seemed to show a fondness for the surface in his first try over the synthetic last time out, albeit against cheaper stock.

So considering the large amount of money Donegal Arrow is expected to pull, should you wish to play against Donegal Arrow and try to win with one or more of the experienced runners, you stand a chance of being well rewarded.  In my opinion those are the primary options in this leg: either single Donegal Arrow, or fully fade Donegal Arrow and leave him off your main ticket.  Me?  I've chosen the latter, because I'm in a dice rolling mood.  I can imagine feeling very foolish after this contest is over should Donegal Arrow prove to be the real deal; but that's the way that I've chosen to play it.

RACE 6 - (F) ALW N3L - Eight Furlongs Synthetic

A's

# 2 Bali Belle (ML 2-1)

B's

# 5 Crystal Ship (ML 10-1)

# 6 Tap Dancing Lady (ML 5-1)

C's

# 1 Legerity (ML 10-1)

# 3 Maybe Later (ML 5-2)+

# 7 Heavenly Hellos (ML 6-1)+

Maybe Later could possibly be moved up in status onto the main ticket; but I didn't think four deep was the right way to go in this leg, as Bali Belle looks like she could be legit.  Indeed, I should probably drop Crystal Ship down a notch; but if the Morning Line holds true, 10-1 on Crystal Ship is just too good to pass up.

RACE 7 - (F) Clm $30k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 8 Quick Conversation (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 5 Eclipsed (ML 12-1)

# 6 Charlee O (ML 9-2)+

C's

# 2 Miss Matchmaker (ML 4-1)

# 7 Seeking Seca (ML 6-1)+

# 9 Wicked Wonder (ML 9-2)+

# 10 Fredericia (ML 30-1)+

# 11 Abitibi (ML 7-2)+

Scratch # 1 Je Suis Rapide (ML 20-1) and # 4 It's Greek to Me (ML 30-1)

Quick Conversation took the Place at this class level last time out.  Charlee O is making a significant class drop.  Maybe Eclipsed can grab the early lead and hold on for dear life.  Had I singled Donegal Arrow in the opening leg I probably would have gone deeper here.

RACE 8 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic

A’s

# 5 Miss J D (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Three Sport Coats (ML 5-1)+

# 9 Miss Lizzy (ML 5-2)

C's

# 1 Optimize (ML 20-1)
# 3 Forty Winks (ML 15-1)

# 6 Chica Chula (ML 9-2)+

# 7 Inside Girl (ML 15-1)

# 8 Bobbie Sox (ML 10-1)+

# 13 Ms. the Law (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 12 Midnight Mercy (ML 12-1)

Not much to say here.  All three of my big ticket inclusions have finished in the money at this class level.  Miss J D appears to have the biggest upside; but there's no way to know for sure until after the race is run.  Another leg where I may have gone deeper had I singled Donegal Arrow.

Since it met with such positive response when introduced last time out, here's how the above selections look in chart form:

OK, that's the analysis.  With the hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6 with 2 with 8 with 5 $1.00

All A Entries with All B+ Entries

$1.00 P4: 2,6 with 2 with 6,8 with 4,5 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,4,6 with 2,5,6 with 5,6,8 with 4,5,9 $40.50

A's and B+'s with One C+

$0.50 P4: 1,5,12 with 2 with 6,8 with 4,5 $6.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 3,7 with 6,8 with 4,5 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 2 with 7,9,10,11 with 4,5 $8.00

$0.50 P4: 2,6 with 2 with 6,8 with 6,8 $4.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,8,9 with 2 with 8 with 5 $1.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 8 with 5 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 2 with 5 $0.50

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2 with 8 with 1,3,7,13 $2.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo