"Nobody ever lost money taking a profit." - Bernard Baruch
Looking at tonight's program in Florence, Kentucky, it soon becomes clear that the back portion of the card is akin to a referendum on Trainer Wesley Ward. Ward has an entrant is each of the final three races tonight (# 9 Sense Shines in Race 6; # 6 Her World in Race 7; and # 10 Joker on Jack in Race 8) and each one is the Morning Line Favorite in their respective contest.
I was tempted to simply build my play around the three Ward runners; that is, just key those three Morning Line Favorites, and do some combination of socking it in on what would undoubtedly be a very low paying sequence, along with digging for value in the opening leg, Race 5. Indeed, if one wants to spin the bottle and pray for a Race 5 upset, one could go "ALL" in Race 5, and then single the Ward runner in each of the next three legs; total cost $5.50 for a fifty cent incremental play. Or one could forsake The Late Pick Four and just play a Wesley Ward Pick Three, singling each Ward runner in the final three contests on the card, and pounding that ticket for however much one should desire.
Anyway, those were the options that I was considering until the Michael Maker trained # 13 Laugh and Play drew in off the Also Eligible List in Race 7. That changed everything, at least for me, because in my humble opinion Laugh and Play has a greater likelihood of winning Race 7 than the Wesley Ward trained # 6 Her World does; and that's before getting to the matter of their respective odds.
So with all of the above as prelude let's get to it; as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at Turfway Park.
RACE 5 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Bolts Babe (Morning Line 7-2)
B's
# 6 Harmonica (ML 9-2)+
# 10 Time to Race (ML 12-1)
# 11 Miss Peabody (ML 3-1)+
C's
# 1 Spring Lilacs (ML 20-1)
# 3 Happy Helen (ML 12-1)
# 4 Mischievous Doll (ML 10-1)+
# 4 Mischievous Doll (ML 10-1)+
# 5 Call Me Toni (ML 30-1)+
# 7 Kiss It Goodbye (ML 15-1)+
# 9 Giving Spirit (ML 10-1)
# 14 Chasing After You (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 8 Kate's Concerto (ML 5-1); # 12 Mally's Monsoon (ML 20-1); and # 13 Iguazu Falls (ML 6-1)
Based upon budget, I could go deeper in this opening leg; that is, put more runners on the main ticket (though I am using all runners in some capacity on my tickets in this race). But I don't think that the expected payout of this sequence justifies a greater investment; but, of course, others are free to think otherwise.
I had some back and forth with myself as to which entrant should be top selection in this contest. I was leaning heavily towards Harmonica, as the runners who are coming to Turfway Park from the other tracks on the Kentucky circuit (especially Churchill Downs and Keeneland) seem to have been doing a fine job of holding their form on the Turfway Park synthetic track.
But ultimately I went with Bolts Babe, because Trainer Jonathan Wong has been doing such an excellent job at Turfway Park with the crop of runners that he has brought with him from California. I also like that Ruis Racing Ltd apparently has opted to retain ownership in Bolts Babe while transferring conditioning duties from Shelbe Ruis to Wong; suggesting that Ruis Racing is quite confident in this filly's ability to succeed, even when running for another barn. So bottom line is four from this leg go onto the main ticket; all are being used in some capacity; and Bolts Babe is my top selection for Race 5.
RACE 6 - (F) Clm $5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 9 Sense Shines (ML 1-1)
B’s
# 7 Fomo (ML 5-1)
# 10 Land Remembered (ML 9-2)+
C's
# 1 Froome (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 2 Tradeoff (ML 20-1)
# 6 Thispointintime (ML 15-1)
# 8 Where's Lucky (ML 15-1)+
Scratch # 4 De Joria (ML 6-1); # 10 Belperron (ML 15-1); and # 14 Two Sixtyone (ML 8-1)
Intuitively, that looks wrong; that is, using an even money ML Favorite as a top selection, but still going three deep. But ultimately I believe it to be justified because Sense Shines fits into an intriguing slot. On the one hand, there are enough questions surrounding Sense Shines to make him a vulnerable Favorite: Sense Shines has never competed on a synthetic surface; his works over this track have been no great shakes; and Sense Shines lone victory was almost twenty months ago.
But on the other hand, Sense Shines is taking an incredible class drop; so much so that you would think that Trainer Wesley Ward was allergic to him. Such a class edge is difficult to ignore.
But on the third hand, class alone doesn't win races; you still have to get to the line ahead of the rest of the field. So three deep here seems like a good way to go.
RACE 7 - (F) ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 13 Laugh and Play (ML 4-1)
B's
None
C's
# 3 Roc's Princess (ML 15-1)+
# 5 Silver Sea (ML 20-1)
# 5 Silver Sea (ML 20-1)
# 6 Her World (ML 1-1)+
# 7 Only Kidding (ML 4-1)
# 12 Seize the Marquet (ML 15-1)+
As I mentioned in the introduction, had Laugh and Play not drawn in off the Also Eligible List, then the Wesley Ward trained Her World would have been my big ticket single in this leg. But Laugh and Play did draw in; so it's her solo on the main ticket, with Her World relegated to backup status.
RACE 8 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 10 Joker On Jack (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 9 Takafumi (Brz) (ML 3-1)
C's
# 3 Markitoff (ML 3-1)
# 4 Snake Bite (ML 12-1)+
# 5 Awesome D J (ML 15-1)
# 11 El Cheapo (ML 15-1)
# 12 Fulco (ML 20-1)
# 13 Reux (GB) (ML 12-1)+
# 13 Reux (GB) (ML 12-1)+
Scratch # 2 Luckyinkentucky (ML 20-1) and # 14 American Nightmare (ML 12-1)
Jocker on Jack is another member of tonight's fire sale by Trainer Wesley Ward. The only reason why I didn't make Joker on Jack a big ticket single is because this will be Joker on Jack's first attempt at covering a mile; so that's by Takafumi (Brz), who fits well here on class, joins Joker on Jack on the main ticket.
Alright; here are the above selections in chart form:
And, with a hat tip to Steve Crist, here are the tickets that I'll be playing:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 2 with 9 with 13 with 10 $1.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 2,6,11 with 9,10 with 13 with 10 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,6,10,11 with 7,9,10 with 13 with 9,10 $12.00
A's and B+'s with One C+
$0.50 P4: 4,5,7 with 9,10 with 13 with 10 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6,11 with 8 with 13 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2,6,11 with 9,10 with 3,6,12 with 10 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 2,6,11 with 9,10 with 13 with 4,13 $6.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,3,9,14 with 9 with 13 with 10 2.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,6 with 13 with 10 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 5,7 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 9 with 13 with 3,5,11,12 $2.00
Total: $45.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 7:55 EST / 4:55 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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