The first race at Hollywood Park today is a $50k MSW for fillies and mares, three years old and upward, to be run at a distance of eight and a half furlongs on some California grass.
# 4 More Chocolate (Morning Line 8-5) and # 5 Ghost of a Chance (ML 5-2) both exit the fifth race at this track back on June 8 (run at a distance just sixteenth of a mile shorter than today's affair) in which they finished second and fourth, respectively. For that previous effort these two earned nearly identical Beyer Speed Figures (76 for More Chocolate, 75 for Ghost of a Chance) which are better than the career best of every other horse in today's field.
But the horse that I'm leaning towards today is # 3 Remarkable Moon (ML 3-1). This will be Remarkable Moon's first start as a three year old, her last previous start of her four race career coming as it has back in December of 2011. This will also be Remarkable Moon's first start on the West Coast, having moved from the barn of trainer Bill Mott into the care of trainer Patrick Gallagher. Note that Gallagher does well in both the "First Time With" category (4 wins in his last 22 tries, with an ROI of $4.38) and in the "More Than Six Months Away" category (three-for-last fourteen, ROI $3.73). Garrett Gomez will get the ride today, his first time ever aboard Remarkable Moon. Gomez may be entering a hot phase of his own, having brought home four winners this past Saturday (6/30), two of which were for trainer Gallagher. Indeed, the horse that won the June 8 contest that More Chocolate and Ghost of a Chance are exiting (Jolly Days) was a Gomez/Gallagher collaboration.
In order to win today, Remarkable Moon will need to run the best race of her career to date. But with all the action that More Chocolate and Ghost of a Chance are expected to take, Remarkable Moon should be an overlay, and go to post at a generous price. Here's hoping that Remarkable Moon can rise to the occasion.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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