The 3rd Race at Del Mar Thursday is a $40k Maiden Claiming for two year old California bred (or sired) fillies, scheduled to be run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the not dirt main track. As I write this, the original field of twelve has already seen two scratches, including the # 7 It's Aine, who was discussed in the key race comment of 7/24 (below).
The Morning Line favorite at 3-1, # 5 Ella Bea Awesome, is making her first drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in her fourth career start (the most starts of any horse in today's field). Though well regarded in her last race as the Post Time favorite, Ella Bea Awesome failed to hit the board, posting the lowest Beyer Speed Figure of her career. She'll be adding blinkers today, a move which Trainer Doug O'Neill has used successfully in the past, connecting at a 14% Win Rate with a positive Return on Investment.
Also expected to draw a bit of money is # 1 Flamboyance (ML 7-2), if for no other reason than because she is trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Rafael Bejarano; the pair are clicking at an approximate 30% Win Rate over their last two hundred joint ventures. However, Flamboyance draws the rail, which is always a tough assignment for those making their debut; and her sire, Heatseeker, has (according to DRF's Jim Kachulis in his "Closer Look" comments) yet to have one of his offspring win their first time out.
# 10 Restless Ruby (ML 20-1) exits a key race at Hollywood Park on June 21 (see the 7/12 post below). She ran dead last in that race, a comfortable eleven lengths back; but the addition of Jockey Jose Valdivia does give some cause for optimism today.
# 9 Warren's Sugarbuzz (ML 15-1) is the only horse in this group besides Ella Bea Awesome to be dropping down into the Maiden Claiming ranks for the first time. The combination of Unbridled as her Grand Sire and Thunder Gulch as her Dam Sire would indicate an affinity for synthetic surfaces; but her Tomlinson for the distance of 266 suggests that she'd prefer to run further than today's five and a half furlongs.
# 4 French Alps (ML 6-1) is sired by Swiss Yodeler, whose offspring win approximately 11% of the time at first asking. However, Trainer Barry Abrams' Win Rate Stats over the past couple of years indicate that two year old (3% winners) Maiden Claimers (5%) on synthetic surfaces (2%) are not exactly his forte.
Speaking of Win Rate Stats, # 11 Memo to Maggie (ML 8-1) has a lot of appeal based upon the success Trainer Steve Miyadi has had in all of today's categories. Memo to Maggie has the best Tomlinson rating in the field for today's distance, and the descendants of her sire, Memo, win at an 11% clip their first time out. However, the lack of energy in her workouts, along with the break between June 17 and July 8, does temper the enthusiasm somewhat. It's possible that this horse just may prefer non-synthetic surfaces.
The horse I landed on here is # 12 Amy's Cashin In (ML 4-1); who, like Ella Bea Awesome, is trained by Doug O'Neill. Amy's Cashin In exits a key race in her initial try two back (the same contest in which Restless Ruby debuted) and took the Show (with a troubled trip) at this level her last time out, with a Beyer that showed improvement over her premier outing.
Post Time is scheduled for 3:09 PM PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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