Saturday's Race 7 at Ellis Park is an MSW to be run at a distance of six furlongs on the dirt. As I write this, the race features a field of nine, as # 2 Bourbon Pride, # 5 Musicinthehouse and # 11 Gold Mate have all been scratched, while neither of the two AEs, # 13 Ledokol and # 14 Nestrovya, drew in.
Four of the horses in today's field are first time starters. Of those four, the one that I find most intriguing is # 8 Sammy's Bandit (Morning Line 6-1). Trained by Ken McPeek, Sammy's Bandit is sired by First Defence. As this is just the second crop of foals to be sired by First Defence, data is still limited, especially regarding first time starters. However, First Defence himself did win as a two year old; and the debut stats for Sammy's Bandit's Dam Sire, Dixieland Band, are more than acceptable.
Also worth a mention among the first time starters is # 1 Unbridled Logic (ML 15-1). While the inside post is hardly desirable for a first time starter, the rail is doing quite well so far this meet at Ellis Park (16.4% Win Rate in 55 sprints). Having Lion Heart as his sire would leave one to believe that Unbridled Logic will be ready to go at first asking; though Trainer Walter Bindner Jr does not seem to enjoy much success with first time starters.
All five of the experienced runners in today's race have run exactly one race each; and all five will have a new rider on board today. The mount for # 3 Glyn's Good Guy (ML 10-1) goes to Calvin Borel, who has gotten off to a rather slow start this current meet, winning only once in his first twenty-five rides.
# 7 Smokey Deputy (ML 8-1) and # 9 Tap and Trade (ML 4-1) both exit the same debut race, which was won by Circle Unbroken, who was also making his debut (Circle Unbroken went on the win the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes in his next start). It's worth noting that Tap and Trade has lower Morning Line odds than the Steve Asmussen trained Smokey Deputy, despite the fact that Smokey Deputy finished ahead of Tap and Trade in their only race. It will be interesting to see what final odds the public gives the two entrants today.
# 10 Anillo (ML 5-1) exits the same debut race as Glyn's Good Guy, where they finished 4th and 5th, respectively. Personally, I think Glyn's Good Guy made the better effort of the two in that contest, as GGG was up near the pace in the early part of the race before fading, while Anillo was well back throughout. Still, Anillo's trainer Eduardo Caramori does quite well in MSW races, as well as with today's move of adding blinkers to his horse.
The horse I landed on is # 12 Gefest (ML 8-1), the invader from Mountaineer. Of today's second time starters, Gefest is the only one to have finished in the money in his debut. Trainer Gennadi Dorochenko does quite well when he ships, and wins more than his fair share when bringing back a beaten favorite. The far outside post is a concern; but hopefully it will allow Gefest to avoid any of the potential trouble that often crops up when two year olds start bouncing off each other.
Post time is scheduled for 5:00 EDT / 2:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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