The 6th Race at Del Mar Sunday is a MSW for two year old fillies, to be run at a distance of five and a half furlongs over the plastic main track. There will be a field of ten, as all the Also Eligibles get to stay in the barn. Seventy percent of the field will be making their career debut. As none of the three experienced horses in the bunch (Silent Ride, Suncadia, and Beholder) have posted a Beyer Speed Figure within twenty points of par, it makes sense to lean towards one of the first time starters.
The horse I landed on is # 6 Solar Eclipse. Trained by Kristin Mulhall and ridden by Corey Nakatani, Solar Eclipse was sired by Malibu Moon, whose offspring (according to DRF's Jim Kachulis in his Closer Look comments) are hitting at an approximately 14% Win Rate their first time out. Solar Eclipse's Grand-sire is A. P. Indy, whose progeny have been known to do well on the fake stuff (see the July 15 entry below). Solar Eclipse's Tomlinson Rating for the distance is a more-than-acceptable 347.
Considering all the above, and factoring in that Trainer Mulhall has won with 12% of her last 34 first time starters, it's clear that Solar Eclipse's Morning Line odds of 12-1 would be very generous indeed. While I have no way of knowing how the actual wagering will go, I think Solar Eclipse is worth a play at even half those odds. At least, in my humble opinion.
Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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