Saturday, July 14, 2012

7/14/12 BHP - Preview

Looking at today's card at Hollywood Park, I think I see a few horses that could be live at a price.


RACE 4 - The Landluce Stakes


# 3 Miss Empire (Morning Line 4-1) is the only entrant in this field of two year olds with a stakes victory, having captured the $100k Cinderella Stakes over this track last month.  The 77 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in that win matches up well with the 79 Beyer earned by likely favorite (ML 6-5) Executiveprivilege in her debut on June 28.  Expect Miss Empire to get first run at the leaders, and then try to hold off the late charging Executiveprivilege.


RACE 5 - Maiden Claiming $20k


# 4 Officer Bavetta (ML 6-1) owns the best Beyer on a synthetic surface in this bunch, with the 64 that he earned over this track back on December 1, 2011.  Since that 64 is the highest of his career, and that race is his only one to date at Hollywood, there's a good possibility that Office Bavetta has an affinity for this track.  His recent workouts don't show a break (6/3; 6/10; 6/17; 6/24; 7/1; 7/7), and he gets a bit of a class relief, dropping into this level for the first time from the Md $30k ranks.


RACE 7 - Claiming $16k Lifetime Non-Winners of Two


# 11 Ghost N Your Heart (ML 8-1) will be making her first start in over fifteen months; but her works have been steady, and the fact that she won her career debut (at 28.40-1) suggests that she can win off the bench.  Note also that Trainer Paul Aguirre does quite well with horses coming off an extended layoff (though in a very small sample).  Also note that Ghost N Your Heart's maiden win referenced above was at this track at today's distance; the only race of her career fitting that criteria.  Finally, today's field contains several early speed types, which sets up well for a closer such as Ghost N Your Heart.


As I write this today's scratches and program changes for Hollywood Park have not yet been posted; so the information above could be subject to change.


Good luck to all.


Peace and Love,


Jimbo

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