RACE 5 - OC 75k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Talon's of Tuscany (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
None
# 5 Solemnly Swear (ML 9-5) is the Morning Line Favorite, and will no doubt get a lot of action due to the high Beyer Speed Figure that he earned last time out. But I'm going to play against Solemnly Swear because, quite frankly, I don't believe that figure. Solemnly Swear has run twice at today's class level on this main track and has twice finished out of the money by a combined twenty-five and a half lengths. If Solemnly Swear beats me today, then so be it.
Talon's of Tuscany won his debut sprinting over this main track last month for Trainer Dale Romans. Talon's of Tuscany now stretches out to two turns, and brings with him the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. If Talon's of Tuscany shows the normal improvement one would expect from a second time starter moving to a distance more in line with his breeding, then he wins this one. Otherwise, it will be a very short afternoon for our play.
RACE 6 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Mr. Besilu (ML 5-2)
# 7 Successful Runner (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
I'm not sure what to make of the back and forth Mr. Besilu has done between turf and dirt in his career; and personally I don't like the fact that he has yet to be a serious threat to the winner in any of his five career starts. But he's by A. P. Indy out of a Thunder Gulch mare, and that's just too much class to ignore. Maybe today he figures it out.
Successful Runner has finished in the money in all four of his career starts, all at this level. This will be Successful Runner's first try at eight furlongs. I expect that the added distance makes it more likely that he grabs the early lead today and just keeps on going.
RACE 7 - (F) Md $25k - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Amber Morning (ML 12-1)
# 5 Miss Livona (ML 5-2)
# 7 Lady Joyfull (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Amber Morning competed against non-claiming state-bred maidens in her career debut. Since then it's been all turf routes, with not much to show for it. In my opinion the return to a one turn sprint at a class level at which she should be competitive rates Amber Morning a longshot candidate.
Miss Livona has shown the ability to smoke the grass and grab the early lead against much more expensive stock. If she gets loose early, this one could be over before they exit the turn. Lady Joyfull took the Place the last time she competed at this class level. Expect Jockey Luis Saez to seek out a stalking trip for Lady Joyfull right behind Miss Livona.
RACE 8 - Alw 35000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Closerwalk (ML 12-1)
# 7 Declan's Warrior (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
In case you're wondering how in the world Declan's Warrior, a horse that has never run for a tag in his life, qualifies to compete in a Starter Allowance, the conditions for this contest also allow for any horse that has not won since September 13; so there's the loophole. Needless to say, Declan's Warrior is the clear class of this field; and if he's in any way ready to run after being on the shelf since August, then he should have no problem putting this field away. I've included Closerwalk because I just couldn't bring myself to leave what looks to be the lone speed in the field off my ticket, even though it means doubling to cost of my play.
RACE 9 - OC 62k/N2X - Five Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Imperial Robyn (ML 4-1)
# 3 Texas Rustler (ML 8-1)
# 4 Boltin' Out (ML 5-1)
# 5 Mish Mosh (5-2)
# 7 Stormy Rush (ML 3-1)
C’s
None
Briefly, I'm using all except the two making their turf debuts. All that I'm using have shown the ability to win or compete at today's level, with the exception of Imperial Robyn, who steps up to level for the first time today, but with an improving form that I believe justifies his inclusion among the contenders.
RACE 10 - (F) Md $16k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Monjablanca (ML 5-1)
# 3 Sofialeonor (ML 3-1)
# 5 Double Interest (ML 20-1)
# 6 Alguna (ML 7-2)
# 9 Kikiy's Toni (ML 6-1)
# 10 Ah Honey Honey (ML 8-1)
C’s
None
Monjablanca took the field from gate to the shadow of the wire last time out at this level before settling for the Place. Sofialeonor gave an effort two back at today's distance over this turf course at this class level that would get her picture taken today if repeated. Double Interest was fighting for the early lead in her only prior turf try that was against more expensive stock; she should find things easier on the front end today.
Alguna has finished in the money in five of her nine career starts on the grass. Today she competes at the lowest level of her career. Kikiy's Toni showed steady speed both early and late last time out. Ah Honey Honey is by Candy Ride (Arg) and drops a good number of rungs on the class ladder, all the way down from MSW company.
OK; that's the analysis. We're playing it caveman style today, going with just "A's" and putting everyone on a single ticket; which looks like this:
All A Entries
$0.20 P6: 4 with 5,7 with 4,5,7 with 4,7 with 1,3,4,5,7 with 2,3,5,6,9,10 $72.00
Total: $72.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 3:01 EDT / 12:01 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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