It's Big 'Cap Day at The Great Race Place; so we turn our eyes towards the West, as today will feature the 77th running of the Santa Anita Handicap. The good people in Arcadia, California have put together a tremendous card for Saturday; along with the featured race with its $750k guaranteed purse there will be four other stakes, including three Grade 2's, plus the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile. I'll be taking a look at the Late Pick Four at Santa Anita a bit later; but, for now, I wanted to offer a few thoughts on an all-stakes Pick Three in the middle of the card, Races 5 - 7.
RACE 5 - The San Felipe (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 9 Midnight Hawk (Morning Line 5-2)
C's
None
Needless to say, the entire complexion of this race changed with the scratch of # 6 Bayern, the original Morning Line Favorite (the odds contained in this post are courtesy of the revised Morning Line created after Bayern's scratch by Santa Anita's Jon White).
I expect # 7 Kristo (ML 5-2) to be leading the pack early; if it's an easy enough lead, he just might steal it on the front end. But while Kristo broke his maiden at today's distance I think he's better suited to one turn contests; indeed, Kristo may have a better future on the East Coast, where he'd be able to compete in the one-turn miles offered in New York.
# 4 California Chrome (ML 9-5) and Midnight Hawk should both be forwardly placed and striking the leader before they exit the final turn. Midnight Hawk should have the edge in the stretch, as the wider post should allow him to avoid any traffic issues when the leaders start backing up. Worth noting: California Chrome has taken on open company twice in his career, and has finished out of the money both times.
RACE 6 - (F) The China Doll $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 8 Diversity Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 11 On the Backstreets (ML 7-2)
C's
# 3 Sushi Empire (ML 10-1)
# 5 Screen Goddess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Savings Account (ML 8-1)
# 13 Full Ransom (ML 8-1)
On the Backstreets is a stakes winner over this turf course; in fact, On the Backstreets has won clear both times that she's competed on the California grass. But both those races were won charging down the hill; so it's fair to have some concerns as to whether or not On the Backstreets form will transfer to the flats. The same concern can be expressed for Diversy Harbor, who was impressive winning her debut here back in January, but must now prove that she can run equally well on level ground.
Sushi Empire, Savings Account, and Full Ransom have been taking turns beating each other this Winter. I give a slight edge Savings Account based on the Jockey / Trainer tandem of Mike Smith and Tommy Proctor; but you could just throw a blanket over this trio when picking which will cross the wire first today.
Screen Goddess is another trained by Proctor, one of three in this field. Screen Goddess looked impressive her last time out in her turf debut; a similar effort today would definitely give her a placing, if not necessarily the Win.
RACE 7 - The San Carlos (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 10 Shakin It Up (ML 3-1)
C's
# 6 Wild Dude (ML 7-2)
# 1 Sahara Sky (ML 4-1) is the defending champ; a position to which I normally give a great deal of respect. But Sahara Sky came out flat his last time out in The Palos Verdes; and while it would be easy to just draw a line through that one because it came off the layoff, the facts are: 1) Sahara Sky had won The Palos Verdes last year off a similar long layoff; 2) Sahara Sky has a past history of performing quite well off the bench; 3) Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is known for having his charges ready to fire off a vacation. So I'm going with the opinion that Sarah Sky's effort last time out in The Palos Verdes was not just a one off but a genuine reversal of form; and if Sarah Sky beats me today, then so be it.
Wild Dude is holding the hot hand, entering this one with a three race winning streak, including crossing the wire a neck in front of Secret Circle in the aforementioned Palos Verdes. But I'm giving the edge here to the Bob Baffert trained Shakin It Up, who has yet to lose a Graded Stakes over this main track.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method (with a slight variation) we get:
All A Entries
$5.00 P3: 9 with 8,11 with 10 $10.00
A's with C's
$2.00 P3: 9 with 3,5,12,13 with 10 $8.00
$1.00 P3: 9 with 3,5,8,11,12,13 with 6 $6.00
Total: $24.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 5:00 EST / 2:00 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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