To be honest, the title of this post is a little misleading; not just because Pool 4's Morning Line by Mike Battaglia was actually released Monday, but also because I really have no interest in a futures wager at this time. I should also advise you not to expect any heavy analysis here; I don't think there's much to be gained by taking an in-depth look at all the major contenders as they currently stand. What I wanted to do here was just jot down a few thoughts on my top Kentucky Derby contenders while they were still fresh in my mind, so that I have a point of reference to guide me over the next couple over weekends and help me start to bring the big race into focus.
My current top contender is Cairo Prince, winner of The Holy Bull and The Nashua and Place horse behind the recently injured Honor Code in the abomination that was The Remsen (where they walked the opening half mile in 52.74 before lightly jogging to 1:17.56 for the first six furlongs). Cairo Prince is scheduled to compete Saturday in The Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, which is expected have just a half dozen entrants (the draw will be Wednesday). While a victory there would certainly solidify his position as top contender for The Kentucky Derby in my mind, I'm more interested in seeing how well he runs in what will be just his second start over the previous four months.
Shifting to the West Coast, the first Saturday in April will bring us The Santa Anita Derby, and with it the much anticipated match-up between Candy Boy and California Chrome. My gut instinct is that Candy Boy is the better of the two; though, like most gut instincts, that's subject to change with my next meal. It'll be interesting to see if one stands out above the other when they go head-to-head, or if they prove to be evenly matched.
Turning towards Arkansas, my personal opinion is that Tapiture was the best horse in The Rebel despite having to settle for the Place. It seemed clear that Tapiture had a lot of run in him in while he was boxed in at the top of the stretch before he made his own clearing to give himself some running room alongside the eventual winner, Hoppertunity. At this point in time I prefer Tapiture over Hoppertunity; but the picture is muddied due to the current investigations facing Tapiture's trainer Steve Asmussen. The one thing I feel I can confidently take from The Rebel Stakes is that Ride On Curlin does not rank among the top contenders, as he was the only one of the top four finishers in that event without excuse, but could still finish no better than third.
So that's it for now. As I said, just a few thoughts; a snapshot, if you will, of where I feel the top Kentucky Derby contenders currently stand in my mind. If you guys have any comments right now that you'd like to share, I'd love to hear them.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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