It's Sunland Derby Day today, so we shift our focus approximately ten miles west of El Paso, TX to beautiful Sunland Park. Among their many offerings today is a nice little All-Stakes Pick Four, which is where we'll be concentrating our efforts.
RACE 8 - (F) The Sunland Park Oaks $200k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Awesome Baby (Morning Line 6-5)
C's
# 1 Lucky for You (ML 5-2)
Awesome Baby, trained by Bob Baffert, is a two-time Graded Stakes winner in a field where she is the only entrant to have competed in Graded Stakes events. Lucky for You, Trainer Todd Pletcher's entry, has yet to defeat winners; but her last out Beyer Speed Figure matches to Awesome Baby. Lucky for You was also flattered by the Show horse in her graduation (She's Justified) graduating herself next time out with a late charge against non-claiming maidens at Gulfstream Park.
RACE 9 - [S](F) The New Mexico Breeders' Oaks $85k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 4 My Bikini Fell Off (ML 5-2)
# 6 Renewed Vows (ML 5-1)
C's
# 5 Rollsetroll (ML 7-2)
My Bikini Fell Off has a beautiful pair of Wins in her only two career starts, and comes into this contest with the best last out Beyer in the field. The only question is will she go all the way. Renewed Vows has the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in today's field. Like My Bikini Fell Off, Renewed Vows is trained by Bart Hone. Rollsetroll was wide in the turn and through the stretch while taking the Place behind My Bikini Fell Off the last time they competed; perhaps she'll benefit from the added distance.
RACE 10 - [S](F) The La Coneja $85k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 5 Funnyoushouldask (ML 3-1)
# 6 Tricky R (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Funnyoushouldask took the Place in last year's running of this contest. Toss out the try against open stakes company and Funnyoushouldask has looked good in her 2014 starts. Tricky R enters this one riding a three race winning streak. She's a career four-for-seven over this track, and might very well be the quickest of the bunch.
RACE 11 - The Sunland Derby (Grade 3) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Midnight Hawk (ML 5-2)
# 9 Chitu (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Commissioner (ML 7-2)
# 8 Rebranded (ML 12-1)
Midnight Hawk and Chitu are the Bob Baffert entries, and they seem to have a clear edge over the rest of the field. The only question is can they make the distance without running each other into the ground.
Commissioner is one of the two Todd Pletcher entries. Commissioner is adding blinkers today. The DRF Past Performances note that "Pletcher is 0-for-14 the past five years with starters wearing blinkers for the first time in graded stakes races." But even without that stat you would know that adding blinkers for a stakes race is a bad move. Putting blinkers on a horse making it's second or third start makes sense; you want a horse learning how to compete to focus on the race and not its surroundings. Adding blinkers also makes sense for horses in the claiming ranks, to see if you can shake them out of the doldrums and get a renewed effort from them. Adding blinkers for a major stakes try does not make sense, because now is not the time to be trying to figure things out for your horse.
Despite all the above, Commissioner is simply too good to leave off the ticket. His preferred running style of coming off the pace should suit him well against this field, and he already has two wins at today's distance.
Rebranded, previously trained by Todd Pletcher, is the local hero. Rebranded is also adding blinkers today, so you can just repeat the above paragraph here. But Rebranded took a major step forward in his three year old debut his last time out. Odds are that he'll bounce off that effort; but if Rebranded can move forward off that try, then he could get his picture taken when this one is finished.
OK, that's the analysis; and, quite frankly, it looks heavy on the chalk side. So since there's not much chance for a price, let's shake things up a bit and see if we can get an edge by pressing our best opinions.
$2.00 P4: 5 with 4 with 5,6 with 7,9 $8.00
$1.00 P4: 5 with 4,6 with 5,6 with 7,9 $8.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 4,5,6 with 5,6 with 3,7,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 4,5,6 with 5,6 with 3,7,8,9 $24.00
Total: $49.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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