So we come to the first Saturday in Spring and, surprise, surprise, it looks like no one will be winning a billion dollars of Warren Buffett's money. But that's not our concern, as we shift our focus from the East to the West and take a run at today's Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - Clm $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 3 Mega Heat (Morning Line 4-1)
# 8 Stoney Fleece (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 American Act (ML 12-1)
# 6 Batti Man (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Needless to say, # 5 El Commodore (ML 5-2), had he not been scratched, would have been an "A" contender. Indeed, the scratch of El Commodore nearly led me to scrap this Pick Four play today, as the inability to lean on him as a standout in this contest meant having to make several hard choices in the later events. The further scratch of # 7 Maxx the Giant (ML 12-1) forced the inclusion of Batti Man on the ticket; for while my original plan was to not use Batti Man in my play, the above two scratches have left him in position to be the controlling speed in this field.
Willyconker defeated Stoney Fleece rather convincingly at Hollywood Park back in December, though it's worth noting that Jockey Victor Espinoza, who was aboard Willyconker for that Win, will be riding Stoney Fleece today; while Corey Nakatani, who rode Stoney Fleece to his last victory, will be on top on Williconker in this event. Mega Heat is the horse for the horse for the course, as well as being a specialist at today's distance.
EDIT - And now Willyconker and # 4 Hog's Hollow (ML 6-1) are both scratched as well (all four scratches are by order of the track Veterinarian). So let's move Stoney Fleece up to the "A" list, and bring in American Act as a "C", so that all four remaining runners are on the ticket in some fashion.
RACE 7 - Clm $10k - Eight and a half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Twin Six (ML 5-1)
# 2 Big Wags (ML 6-1)
# 8 Graeme Crackerjack (ML 12-1)
# 11 Paseo Alegro (ML 7-2)
# 12 Tuckers Point (ML 5-1)
C's
None
This would have been a nice one to just hit the "ALL" button, as this certainly appears to be a very evenly matched field. Tuckers Point won at this level last time out; Graeme Crackerjack won at this level three back; while Twin Six won against slightly more expensive two starts back. Pasea Alegro moves up a rung on the class ladder; but he won convincingly last time out, and the Beyer Speed Figure that he earned fits right in with the rest of this field. Big Wags gets some much needed class relief. Note that Big Wags was defeating more expensive stock back in the Fall.
RACE 8 - The Pasadena $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 1 Enterprising (ML 5-2)
# 4 Diamond Bachelor (3-1)
C's
# 6 Home Run Kitten (ML 5-1)
Enterprising and Diamond Bachelor are both stakes winners at today's distance on the grass. Home Run Kitten is on the ticket primarily because of breeding/reputation. Leaving Home Run Kitten completely off the ticket would save me ten bucks, or 12.5% of the play's total cost; we'll know later which was the correct move. Hard to be confident here as several that have belonged on grass all along were diverted due to their connections contracting Kentucky Derby fever. Once the top contenders here get a couple more grass races on their resumes we'll be in a better position to rank their respective abilities.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $12.5k N2L - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Corinthian Melody (ML 5-2)
# 8 Joint Attempt (ML 7-2)
C's
# 9 Brandon's Princess (ML 4-1)
Corinthian Melody has earned Beyer Speed figures in each of her last three contests that are equal to or better than par for today's class level. Joint Attempt has finished in the money her last two times out, both at today's class level. Today will be her first time trying the seven furlong distance. Brandon's Princess should be quick early, and may be the one that they have to chase down.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,8 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 1,4 with 7,8 $40.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,6 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 1,4 with 7,8 $20.00
$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 6 with 7,8 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 3,8 with 1,2,8,11,12 with 1,4 with 9 $10.00
Total: $80.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:02 EDT / 3:02 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
No comments:
Post a Comment