“Champions keep playing until they get it right.” – Billie Jean King
It's Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park, and Louisiana Derby Day at the Fair Grounds; but I didn't like the weather forecast for today in South Florida and Louisiana, so I'll be once again turning my attention to the West and making my best attempt to hit the Late Pick Four at Santa Anita.
RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Magic Mark (Morning Line 4-1)
# 10 I Don't Care Who (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 2 Mel's Game (ML 8-1)
Magic Mark takes a step up the class ladder after winning clear against California breds at the N1X level. The Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in that one certainly puts him in the mix here. Note that both the Place and Show horse from his graduation both went on to win their next time out.
I Don't Care Who won for fun in each of his last two starts, with both victories coming over this main track. I Don't Care Who is four-for-seven in his career on the Santa Anita dirt, and has the best last-out Beyer in this field.
Throw out all his races at less than seven furlongs and Mel's Game is a perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita main track, and falls just half a length shy of being four-for-five overall for his career. This will be Mel's Game's first try routing; his record suggests that he'll appreciate the added distance.
RACE 7 - (F) The American Beauty $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Moone's My Name (GB) (ML 5-1)
# 4 Golden Production (ML 9-2)
# 6 Fanticola (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 3 Unusual Hottie (ML 5-1)
# 5 Bee Brave (GB) (ML 5-1)
Moone's My Name (GB) gets some much needed class relief. Moone's My Name has had only two starts since coming to North America that weren't Graded Stakes; one she won clear, while the other, which was last year's running of this event, she lost by a neck. Note also that Moone's My Name defeated Dancingtothestars in that North American victory, the same Dancingtothestars that defeated Fanticola last month.
Golden Production is a wildcard here as she is a stakes winner around two turns, but on dirt. Golden Production has two Wins in the three times that's she's tried the grass, but all three efforts were sprints (including a win charging down the hill). As many in this field have already failed at this level, I think it's worth taking a chance on putting Golden Production in as an "A" selection.
Fanticola is less than a combined length shy of coming into this one with a five race winning streak. She certainly has the talent to win here; but the close margin of her defeats combined with the tight margins in her victories suggest that she may prefer running with others rather than ahead of them.
Unusual Hottie finished a length and a half behind Moone's My Name last time out in the Grade 2 Buena Vista, making for three straight starts where she's finished out of the Trifecta. Unusual Hottie will be adding blinkers today; I'm not sure that will help, but I know that at her best she can win at this level.
Bee Brave (GB) won over this turf course at today's distance in her North American debut. Bee Brave should have a pace advantage here, as many in this field prefer to race on the front end. As with Golden Production, the fact that so many in this field have failed at this level adds to the appeal of the new shooters.
RACE 8 - The Tokyo City Cup (Grade 3) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Blueskiesnrainbows (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Ever Rider (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 4 Segway (ML 4-1)
# 5 Toccetive (ML 30-1)
# 7 Niagara Falls (ML 12-1)
Blueskiesnrainbows is the only entrant here with Graded Stakes victories in his recent form. The only thing keeping me from making Blueskiesnrainbows a pure single here is that he needs to lead; so if he gets passed at any time during this ten furlong marathon, there's a good chance that he'll just spit the bit and give up.
The "C" selections are all the entrants besides Blueskiesnrainbows with a Tomlinson Distance Rating above 300 for today's trip. Yeah, sometimes the winner is just the last one still moving forward at the end. Oh, I'll also be putting a couple of bucks on # 5 Toccetive in the Win Pool today, because I expect to get ridiculously high odds for the horse in this field who has actually won a stakes at a marathon distance on dirt.
RACE 9 - [S](F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 9 Seraphic Slew (ML 3-1)
# 12 Van Dien Avenue (ML 4-1)
C’s
# 1 Turn On (ML 12-1)
# 2 Q' Viva (ML 15-1)
# 5 Warren's Cracker (ML 4-1)
# 11 Ready for Love (ML 8-1)
Seraphic Slew and Van Dien Avenue have both earned Beyer Speed Figures virtually equal to par for this class over this turf course at today's distance. Turn On will be making her second career start; Trainer Neil Drysdale wins with approximately 23% of such. Q' Viva is a daughter of Tribal Rule trying grass for the first time. Warren's Cracker twice finished in the Trifecta at today's level over this turf course last year; a return to that form puts her right in the mix today. Ready for Love returns after a twelve month vacation after showing some tactical speed in her two prior career starts. Ready for Love is now trained by Vann Belvoir, who wins about a fifth of time when he sends out who have just come under his care. Note that Belvoir also does quite well with those returning from an extended layoff, albeit in a very small sample size.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,10 with 1,4,6 with 6 with 9,12 $12.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,4,6 with 6 with 9,12 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 3,5 with 6 with 9,12 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,4,6 with 2,4,5,7 with 9,12 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 4,10 with 1,4,6 with 6 with 1,2,5,11 $12.00
Total: $55.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:05 EDT / 3:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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