As promised earlier, here are some thoughts and selections for the Late Pick Four on Big 'Cap Day at Santa Anita:
RACE 8 - The Frank E Kilroe Mile (Grade 1) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 5 Za Approval (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Winning Prize (Arg) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Lochte (ML 8-1)
# 2 Regally Ready (ML 8-1)
# 4 Suggestive Boy (Arg) (ML 6-1)
# 9 Silentio (ML 7-2)
The only horse to finish in front of Za Approval in his last three races has been Wise Dan; that's what's known as keeping good company. Winning Prize (Arg) won the Grade 2 Arcadia his last time out, which was his first time competing on the Santa Anita grass.
It seems odd to relegate the only horse in the field with a Grade 1 victory his last time out to "C" selection status, but I just wasn't impressed with the field that Lochte defeated in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Regally Ready has yet to finish out of the money over this turf course. Suggestive Boy (Arg) is the defending champ; but his lackluster effort last time out in the Arcadia keeps him from being an "A" selection. Silentio was just a nose behind Suggestive Boy in last year's running of this event.
RACE 9 - The Santa Anita Handicap (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Mucho Macho Man (ML 9-5)
# 7 Game On Dude (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 1 Will Take Charge (ML 2-1)
A lone horse loose on the lead is always dangerous; even more so when that horse has won over $5.7 million in his career. Game On Dude has been showing his age in his most recent efforts; but I don't see anyone in this field that can pose a serious challenge to him on the front end early; so it'll just be a matter of whether or not he can hold on late. I expect Mucho Macho Man to be sitting right behind Game On Dude as they ride the backstretch into the final turn. If Mucho Macho Man has to go after Game On Dude too soon, that will be to the 'Dude's advantage. Will Take Charge may objectively be a better horse than both Mucho Macho Man and the 'Dude; but there just isn't enough pace in this one for Will Take Charge to show what he's truly capable of.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 3 Oliver's Tale (ML 3-1)
# 4 Got Even (ML 7-2)
C's
# 6 Protocol (ML 8-1)
# 8 Airfoil (ML 8-1)
# 10 Secretsatmidnight (6-1)
Oliver's Tale and Got Even are the quickest in this field; if either one can shake loose of the other early they should be home free. If those two run each other into the ground, Protocol will be coming right up their backs, while Airfoil will be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace should totally collapse. Secretsatmidnight is listed as a "C" selection because I didn't have the courage to leave a Martin Garcia / Bob Baffert runner completely off the ticket.
RACE 11 - OC 62k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 6 African Oil (Fr) (ML 4-1)
# 7 Magic Channel (ML 12-1)
C's
# 4 Kochees (ML 8-1)
# 9 Prospector's Trick (ML 12-1)
# 11 Abbey Vale (Ire) (ML 4-1)
# 12 Presenceofagenius (ML 4-1)
African Oil (Fr) makes his North American debut for Trainer Simon Callaghan, who is four of his last thirteen with such. It's fair to presume that Magic Channel was injured either before or during his last race of 2013; toss that one and Magic Channel is riding a three race winning streak, including the charge down the hill last time out.
Kochees has taken the Show his last two times out at a class level approximating today's contest. Kochess should appreciate the increased distance. Prospector's Trick is stepping up in class to open company; but he displayed a late kick in his last effort that suggests that he can compete at this level. Abbey Vale (Ire) gets Jockey Rafael Bejarano for his North American debut; an interesting move since Bejarano, among the best turf jockeys on the grounds, rarely rides for Trainer Mike Mitchell. Presenceofagenius has yet to finish out of the money in his three race career, and just misses by a length and a head of having won all three.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 5,6 with 2,7 with 3,4 with 6,7 $16.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,4,9 with 2,7 with 3,4 with 6,7 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1 with 3,4 with 6,7 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 2,7 with 6,8,10 with 6,7 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 2,7 with 3,4 with 4,9,11,12 $16.00
Total: $64.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 6:30 EST / 3:30 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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