RACE 6 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 Nooten (Morning Line 5-1)
C’s
# 1 Mythical Storm (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bobby Z Man (ML 8-1)
Nooten took the Place against open company non-claiming maidens in his only prior turf sprint. Mythical Storm is making his debut for Trainer Gary Mandella, who has won twice the last half dozen times that he's sent out a firster. The presence of Rafael Bejarano in the saddle is an added plus. Bobby Z Man is the only runner in the field with actual experience charging down the hill.
RACE 7 - (F) The Las Flores (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Kinz Funky Monkey (ML 8-1)
# 2 Warm Breeze (ML 4-1)
# 3 Judy the Beauty (ML 4-5)
# 4 Heir Kitty (ML 5-2)
# 5 Munnings Sister (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
Judy the Beauty is clearly the classiest entrant in this field, and there's an excellent chance that when the afternoon is done I'll be regretting not just singling her in this spot. But I can't bring myself to make her a sole "A" here, as there are just too many question marks.
I'm naturally suspicious of trainer intent whenever a top class runner returns from a layoff to compete in a Grade 3 event; and this is no exception. It's obvious that Judy the Beauty's connections have entered her here as a prep to get her ready for the top events still to come. And it's quite possible that while she won't be pushed to give her all, Judy the Beauty could still win today's contest on class alone. But why ship her all the way from Gulfstream Park to run in California, except as an admission that the South Florida competition may be too much for her to handle right now?
Let's also not overlook the fact that Judy the Beauty is zero-for-six when it comes to racing on a fast dirt track. And while there's no shame in taking the Place behind Groupie Doll, note that her previous two losses on a fast dirt track were to Starship Truffles and Beat the Blues; the only graded stakes wins for both of those horses.
Again, the most probable outcome is that Judy the Beauty flashes her class and shows the rest of the field her, well, backside, and gets her picture taken at the end of the race. But there are just too many red flags here for me to single her in this contest.
RACE 8 - (F) OC 62k/N2X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Remise (Aus) (ML 4-1)
# 4 Premier Steps (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Oscar Party (ML 6-1)
# 10 Viva Carina (Arg) (ML 6-1)
Remise (Aus) has been competitive at this level when charging down the hill her last two times out. If that form can carry over to the flats she'll definitely be in the mix at the end. Premier Steps is a stakes winner at today's distance on the grass. Note that the Jockey / Trainer combo of Gary Stevens / Tommy Proctor has a .29 Winning Percentage the last 103 times that they've joined forces.
Oscar Party just missed at this level last time out, though it's a tossup as to whether the turnback in distance will help or hurt. Viva Carina (Arg) is Graded Stakes placed, but the nearly year long vacation is definitely a concern.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Nueva Fortuna (ML 5-1)
# 5 Swiss Peak (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 6 Ten in Excess (ML 15-1)
# 8 Chasing Hope (ML 8-1)
# 10 My Wish Come True (ML 5-1)
Nueva Fortuna debuts for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins a fourth of the time that he sends out first timers for a tag, to go with an overall .31 Winning Percentage in Maiden Claiming events. Swiss Peak took the Show at this level at today's distance over this main track last time out.
Ten in Excess flashed some early speed against more expensive stock in her debut last time out. But that was almost a year ago, so the layoff is a concern. Chasing Hope is by Candy Ride (Arg) whose progeny win approximately 13% of their debuts. Also note that Chasing Hope's trainer, David Hofmans, is two for his last nine when sending out a first timer in a Maiden Claiming event. My Wish Come True is sired by Tribal Rule, whose progeny win approximately 14% of their debuts.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 4,5 $20.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,8 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 4,5 $20.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 2,10 with 4,5 $10.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 1,2,3,4,5 with 1,4 with 6,8,10 $15.00
Total: $65.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:02 EDT / 3:02 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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