Sunday in Arcadia is forecast to be significantly drier than Saturday was; but more importantly (at least, from my perspective) the final four races on Sunday are all scheduled to be run over the main track; so I need not concern myself with thoughts regarding contests coming off the lawn. So with that said, let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - Md $30k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 R B Eye (Morning Line 5-2)
B's
# 5 Fortnite Dance (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Bold Mongolian (ML 12-1)
# 2 Forestation (ML 8-1)
# 3 Nations Hope (ML 12-1)
# 7 Empirical Data (ML 15-1)
# 8 Mad At Money (ML 20-1)
# 9 Magic Bro (ML 12-1)
# 10 Jonathantoquick (ML 5-1)
# 11 Sooner Better (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 4 Warrensdirtydancer (ML 12-1)
Were it not for being disqualified last time out, R B Eye would have finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last four starts. So R B Eye certainly has proven that he is a contender at this level; though it should also be said that R B Eye is quickly approaching the point it's clear that he is happy to settle for minor awards.
Fortnite Dance could move up with the class drop and the return to the main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 7 - Clm $6.25k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Louden's Gray (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Tomasino (ML 15-1)
# 6 Doc Curlin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Master Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 8 I'll Wrap It Up (ML 5-1)
# 9 Winning Road (ML 5-1)
# 10 Trapalanda (ML 4-1)
C's
# 3 Celebrate Life (ML 8-1)
# 4 Harrovian (ML 30-1)
# 5 Royal Seeker (ML 20-1)
As can be seen by the number of runners that I'm using in this leg, I really don't have a good handle on this race. The problem with this contest is that there is only one entrant in this field who finished in the Trifecta last time out; that being Master Ruler. But the main reason that Master Ruler ran so well last time out is because he only had to go five furlongs. In my opinion Master Ruler is extremely suspect beyond five and a half furlongs.
Louden's Gray is the Morning Line Favorite; but he's oh-for-seven since leaving the barn of Trainer Victor Garcia. Winning Road is taking a huge drop off the layoff; which is always suspect, but certainly not a disqualifier. Perhaps I should have more faith here in Trapalanda, and drop some others. Anyway, if you've got the budget you may do well to just buy this leg and move on.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s N2L - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mayan Warrior (ML 5-2)
B’s
# 1 Bea's Boy (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Palladium (ML 4-1)
# 3 Poppy's C Note (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mad Mike (ML 15-1)
# 6 Saltarin (ML 7-2)
# 7 Knight's Cross (ML 5-1)
# 8 Irish Polo (ML 5-1)
Note for future reference that this contest is for runners which have not won two races in their career; no exceptions. None of these runners have visited the winner's circle more than once in their respective lifetime.
Mayan Warrior took the Show at this class level last time out; and Mayan Warrior ran well in his one prior try around two turns (albeit on the turf). Bea's Boy fits well here on class, and could do well stretching out for the first time. Saltarin is one that you might consider adding to your big ticket; though it seems to me that Mayan Warrior has Saltarin's number. All those not on the big ticket are being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Posterize (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Grandpa Louie (ML 5-2)
# 7 Wild Bean (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lieutenant Dan (ML 4-1)
# 10 Toby Time (ML 20-1)
C's
# 1 Loud Mouth (ML 15-1)
# 2 Prodigal Son (ML 8-1)
# 3 Abusive Gary (ML 8-1)
# 9 Satchel Paige (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 6 Viatorem (ML 20-1)
Posterize, Grandpa Louie, and Lieutenant Dan all hit the board at this class level in their respective debuts last time out. Wild Bean and Toby Time are a pair of first time starters that I believe deserve consideration. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 6 with 1 with 4 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 5,6 with 1,2,6,7,8,9,10 with 1,4 with 4,5,7,8,10 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,7,8,9,10,11 with 1 with 4 with 4 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 3,4,5 with 4 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 2,3,5,6,7,8 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 6 with 1 with 4 with 1,2,3,9 $2.00
Total: $81.50
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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