As I type this, I'm trusting that the Arcadia weather will be dry enough Saturday for the down the hill races to remain on the grass. This may prove to be overly optimistic, as Friday's turf contests were moved to the main track, while Thursday's races were canceled in total; but we'll see how it plays out. So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Norski (ML 4-1)
B's
# 2 Jumpin Thru Hoops (ML 5-1)
# 6 Scalper (ML 3-1)
# 7 Dessman (ML 9-5)
C's
# 1 Of Good Report (ML 12-1)
# 5 Taos (ML 6-1)
Scratch # 3 Adare (ML 8-1)
Norski is the only runner in this contest to have finished in the Trifecta, and he's done it twice. Jumpin Thru Hoops showed good early speed in his debut last time out.
Dessman, trained by Bob Baffert, is a first time starter that could be live; especially in a race with no clear standout. Scalper, also trained by Bob Baffert, could move forward in his second career start. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 8 - Alw 50000s - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 7 More Honor (ML 5-1)
B’s
# 1 Cats Blame (ML 8-1)
# 4 Tigerbeach (ML 3-1)
# 5 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)
# 9 Bedeviled (ML 12-1)
# 10 Lauren's Ladd (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Hot Perfection (ML 20-1)
# 3 Fortune of War (GB) (ML 30-1)
# 6 Street to Indy (ML 8-1)
# 8 Lil Milo (ML 12-1)
In addition to having started for a claiming price of $50k or less, entry here is limited to only those runners which have never won a state bred allowance or a race other than maiden or claiming. Which seems redundant to me; because if it's limited to runners which have only won maiden or claiming contests, then of course winners of a state bred allowance are not allowed. Anyway, the most important thing to note in these conditions is that there is no lifetime Win restriction for entry.
More Honor has finished in the Exacta every time that he has charged down the hill. Cats Blame is trained by Steve Knapp, whose runners typically need a race when returning from an approximate three month layoff. But Cats Blame's bullet work of 12/15 suggests that he may be ready to fire.
Tigerbeach took the Place at this class level last time out. Jimmy Chila could improve moving from the flats to the hill. Bedeviled goes first off the claim for Trainer Mark Glatt, who tends to do well with such. Lauren's Ladd could improve returning to the turf. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 9 - The Palos Verdes (Grade 2) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Roy H (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Touched by Autism (ML 20-1)
# 3 Kanthaka (ML 4-1)
# 4 St. Joe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 4 St. Joe Bay (ML 6-1)
# 5 Conquest Tsunami (ML 5-1)
# 6 Awesome Anywhere (ML 8-1)
# 6 Awesome Anywhere (ML 8-1)
Scratch # 2 Distinctive B (ML 12-1)
There are several fine runners in this contest; and while I think any one of them on their best day could pull off the upset Saturday against Roy H, I don't see any value in doubling or tripling the cost of the big ticket trying to beat the Favorite here. Roy H is a proven winner at this level and above, and in my opinion taking a stab with one or more of these others in an effort to beat him does not improve this play. So it's Roy H on the big ticket alone for this leg, with all others being used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - (F) Md $50k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 8 Dearborn (ML 9-5)
B's
# 1 Daybreak (GB) (ML 4-1)
# 6 Fuega (ML 12-1)
# 10 Strengthinnumbers (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Cat's Desire (ML 15-1)
# 3 Coldwater (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gattaia (ML 15-1)
# 3 Coldwater (ML 20-1)
# 4 Gattaia (ML 15-1)
# 5 Mela Jones (ML 15-1)
# 7 Sensible Thoughts (ML 5-1)
# 9 Baladera (ML 15-1)
Dearborn missed graduation by just a neck against non-Claiming Maidens the only prior time that she charged down the hill. Daybreak (GB) disappointed at short odds a couple of times in her native Great Britian; but Daybreak should appreciate the class relief here.
Fuega showed good early speed charging down the Santa Anita hill in her debut last time out. Strengthinnumbers could improve going third off the layoff. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 7 with 8 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,6,7 with 1,4,5,7,9,10 with 7 with 1,6,8,10 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 1,5 with 7 with 7 with 8 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 2,3,6,8 with 7 with 8 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 8 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 7 with 2,3,4,5,7,9 $3.00
Total: $57.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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