“My greatest hope regarding the future rests on the mistakes I’ve made in the past, for those are the most effective things I’ve got to build with.” - Craig D. Lounsbrough
Welcome to 2019, everyone! I want to wish a Happy New Year to all, as well as a very Happy Birthday to all North American thoroughbreds. Hopefully everyone gets off to a smooth beginning in 2019 and no one stumbles out of the gate.
Please note that I will be cutting back significantly on my blogging in 2019. My current plan for most weekends this year is to post on either Saturday or Sunday, rather than both, as has been the case for the past few years. I don't have a firm schedule in mind just yet; though I anticipate that most weekends will see me posting on Saturdays, reserving the Sunday option for those occasions where there is a mandatory payout of a Jackpot Pick Six Pool. But as with all things in life this is subject to change, as I'll see how this setup plays out in practice rather than theory, and adjust accordingly.
Turning our attention to Tuesday's action, the featured race on the Acadia card is the Grade 3 Joe Hernandez, a charge down the Santa Anita hill for older runners. I'll be taking a look at that contest below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.
RACE 7 - OC 62.5k B - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Microrithms (Morning Line 4-1)
B’s
# 1 Solid Wager (ML 3-1)
# 3 Threefiveindia (ML 7-2)
C's
# 2 Apalachee Bay (ML 15-1)
# 5 Captain Scotty (ML 5-2)
# 6 Red Lightning (ML 8-1)
# 7 Lord Simba (ML 5-1)
The added condition which changes this contest from your typical OC 62.5k N2X is that runners who were winless last year can be entered here without fear of being claimed. Those in this field who managed to avoid the Winner's Circle in 2018 are Threefiveindia, Red Lightning, and Lord Simba. Note for the record that the only entrant in this field who is running for a tag is Solid Wager.
Microrithms looked solid enough in defeating a next out winner last time out that he should be able to handle the rise in class. Solid Wager won by as many as he wanted last time out by closing into a pace that wasn't all that fast.
Threefiveindia hasn't shown much since leaving the barn of Trainer Chad Brown; but Threefiveindia is getting some significant class relief here, and the return to the main track can only help. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - The Joe Hernandez (Grade 3) - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 3 Stormy Liberal (ML 8-5)
B's
# 7 Conquest Tsunami (ML 3-1)
# 8 Calibu Club (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Cistron (ML 12-1)
# 2 Calculator (ML 5-1)
# 4 Afleet Ascent (ML 20-1)
# 5 Law Abidin Citizen (ML 6-1)
# 6 Pubilius Syrus (ML 20-1)
Stormy Liberal would probably a big ticket single for me in this leg were he not coming off the layoff. Conquest Tsunami may find his best form by returning to the Santa Anita hill. Calibu Club has improved noticeably since Jockey Joe Talamo has jumped on his back. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $8k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Lucky Student (ML 9-5)
B’s
# 2 Hero for Hire (ML 6-1)
# 4 Princess Kendra (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Eskenforadrink (ML 8-1)
# 3 Ciao Luna (ML 8-1)
# 5 Sought More Pep (ML 6-1)
# 6 Tiger Mom (ML 10-1)
# 7 Forthenineteen (ML 30-1)
# 9 Lovely Linda (ML 30-1)
Lucky Student was victorious at this class level last time out at Del Mar, and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer tends to do well when placing his last out winners. Hero for Hire could rebound off her poor showing last time out with the return to Arcadia. Princess Kendra took the Show against classier competition last time out. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 10 - [S] OC 50k/N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Teacher's Treasure (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 3 Sayin Grace (ML 8-1)
# 6 Feeling Strong (ML 12-1)
# 7 Scouted (ML 6-1)
# 8 Takeo Squared (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Listing (ML 6-1)
# 4 Irish Heatwave (ML 8-1)
# 5 Principe Carlo (ML 20-1)
# 9 Eighty Proof (ML 20-1)
# 11 Grab the Munny (ML 12-1)
# 12 Offshore Affair (ML 12-1)
# 13 Just Hit Play (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 10 Clem Labine (ML 8-1) and # 14 Whooping Jay (ML 3-1)
It seems like only yesterday that these runners were juveniles. Oh, wait; that was yesterday. Life comes at you fast.
Anyway, approximately half these runners have never been on the grass, and none of them have ever charged down the Santa Anita hill. So my best advice here is to go as deep as your budget allows. I've tried to use a mixture of those that have been running well with those whose breeding suggests they will improve by moving to the turf; but, seriously, pretty much anything can happen here. As almost always, the backup "C" Selections are those who aren't on the big ticket.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 8 with 2 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 3,7,8 with 2,4,8 with 2,3,6,7,8 $67.50
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,5,6,7 with 3 with 8 with 2 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,2,4,5,6 with 8 with 2 $2.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 1,3,5,6,7,9 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 3 with 8 with 1,4,5,9,11,12,13 $3.50
Total: $79.50
Post Time for Race 7 is 6:04 EDT / 3:04 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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