Moving forward, the Kentucky Derby trail passes through Arcadia Saturday, with the Grade 3 Sham occupying the featured race position on the program. Saturday's card also contains the Grade 2 San Gabriel, a contest for older runners competing on some California grass. I'll be taking a look at both races below, as I take a run at The Late Pick Five at The Great Race Place.
RACE 6 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Spokane Eagle (ML 4-1)
B's
# 4 Zatter (ML 2-1)
C's
# 1 Goren (ML 12-1)
# 2 Cool Bobby (ML 3-1)
# 5 Best Two Minutes (ML 4-1)
# 6 Coil Me Home (ML 4-1)
Scratch # 3 Sir Samson (ML 30-1)
Spokane Eagle seems to perform well no matter which barn he runs for, and Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well with runners going first off the claim; so that looks like a nice fit. Zatter is returning from an extended layoff for Trainer Bob Baffert, who tends to do well with such. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 7 - The San Gabriel (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A's
# 7 Next Shares (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Chicago Style (ML 3-1)
# 9 Big Bend (ML 12-1)
C's
# 1 Liam the Charmer (ML 4-1)
# 2 Platinum Warrior (Ire) (ML 15-1)
# 3 Cleopatra's Strike (ML 8-1)
# 4 Oscar Dominguez (Ire) (ML 20-1)
# 6 Flamboyant (Fr) (ML 5-1)
# 10 Arms Runner (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 8 Big Score (ML 6-1)
Next Shares is facing softer than he has in recent contests. I'd have more confidence in Chicago Style if this contest was being run at Del Mar, as that's where Chicago Style seems to run his best. But coming off his win in the Hollywood Turf Cup, Chicago Style seems to be in top form, and he tends to run well regardless of distance.
Big Bend looks quickest here, which sorta underlines how little speed there is in this field. Anyway, Big Bend might get away with some soft fractions in the early going. The backup "C" Selections are everyone else.
RACE 8 - ALW N1X - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 7 Popular Kid (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 The Big Train (ML 5-2)
C's
# 2 Lord Guinness (ML 8-1)
# 3 Extraordinary Jerry (ML 8-1)
# 4 Jamminwithbrandon (ML 8-1)
# 6 Show Me Da Lute (ML 6-1)
# 8 Liberty Park (ML 10-1)
# 9 Kylemore (ML 5-1)
For those who follow that angle, Lord Guinness, Jamminwithbrandon, Show Me Da Lute, and Liberty Park are all being reported as first time geldings.
Popular Kid tends to run well over this main track, and Popular Kid seems to be in top form. The Big Train, who seems to settle for far too many minor awards on the turf, ran away and hid from the field last time out in a contest that got kicked off the lawn; so maybe the surface switch is just what The Big Train needed. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
RACE 9 - The Sham (Grade 3) - Ten Furlongs Turf
A's
# 5 Coliseum (ML 1-1)
B's
# 2 Gray Magician (ML 4-1)
C's
# 1 Sueno (ML 20-1)
# 3 Savagery (ML 10-1)
# 4 Easy Shot (ML 30-1)
# 6 Gunmetal Gray (ML 5-2)
# 7 Much Better (ML 6-1)
This probably would have been a Pick Six play if I had more confidence in Coliseum as a big ticket single. But I don't see Coliseum getting to the lead early, and since this is his first time going around two turns, I don't know how well Coliseum will be running late. So ultimately I decided to double the cost of the big ticket by going two deep in this leg.
So having decided to go two deep in this leg, the question then becomes, "Who will be the "B" Selection?" I chose against Gunmetal Gray because I don't like the way that he has backed up in the stretch in his last two races. Sueno looked like a prime candidate for the spot, if only because Sueno will be a big price; but I couldn't convince myself that Sueno can do well at this class level.
Therefore, by process of elimination, I gave the "B" Selection spot to Gray Magician. I like the way that Gray Magician came from off the pace to graduate last time out, and I think that Gray Magician just might outrun Coliseum late. So Coliseum and Gray Magician go on the big ticket, and everyone else will be used as backup "C" Selections.
RACE 10 - Md $20k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Sergio (ML 3-1)
B's
# 3 Bitter Ring Home (ML 4-1)
# 5 Paul's Diva (ML 6-1)
# 7 Getaloadofthis (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Starship Chewy (ML 30-1)
# 2 Bless His Heart (ML 4-1)
# 6 Dude's Dude (ML 30-1)
# 8 When Jesus Walked (ML 30-1)
# 9 Violent Affair (ML 15-1)
# 10 Derby Factor (ML 15-1)
Scratch the Also Eligibles, # 11 Brahms Forest (ML 12-1) and # 12 Malibu Magic (ML 15-1)
Sergio drops in for a tag for the first time after taking the Show two starts back against non-claiming maidens. Bitter Ring Home has finished in the Trifecta at this class level in each of his last two starts.
Paul's Diva took the Place at this class level last time out. Getaloadofthis could move up with the return to the main track. The backup "C" Selections are the rest of the field.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $1.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P5: 4,7 with 5,7,9 with 5,7 with 2,5 with 3,4,5,7 $48.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1,2,5,6 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,10 with 7 with 5 with 4 $3.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 1,2,3,4,6,8,9 with 5 with 4 $3.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 1,3,4,6,7 with 4 $2.50
$0.50 P5: 7 with 7 with 7 with 5 with 1,2,6,8,9,10 $3.00
Total: $63.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 5:34 EDT / 2:34 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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