RACE 6 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Iron Rob (Morning Line 6-1)
# 9 Jury (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 Jes Jaa (ML 5-1)
# 2 Arabian Leopard (ML 7-2)
# 3 Police Escort (ML 8-1)
# 5 Papa Papa Papa (ML 10-1)
# 8 Oppidum (ML 5-1)
C's
# 6 Xanto (ML 15-1)
# 7 Nothingelsematters (ML 6-1)
Iron Rob has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field of juveniles; in fact, either of Iron Rob's Beyers from his past two races would be career bests for anyone else in this field.
So why the big spread? Well, while Iron Rob's Beyers stand above the rest of the field, they are a significant distance away from par for this class of competition. In addition, Iron Rob has finished in the Trifecta only once in his four race career; and that was two starts back, when he was a well beaten second, finishing close to a half dozen lengths behind the winner.
So Iron Rob has yet to earn a Beyer Speed Figure close to par, has finished out of the money in three of his four career starts, and, because he has already made four starts, does not appear to be a candidate to make a significant move forward. For what he's done so far combined with what should be good odds Iron Rob merits being an "A" Selection; but the unlikelihood of Iron Rob improving significantly over his past efforts means that we need to cover ourselves here with a wide spread.
Jury is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and ridden by Rafael Bejarano. The descendants of Jury's sire, Tale of the Cat, win more than their fair share of debut efforts.
Jes Jaa and Police Escort are a pair of first time starters trained by John Sadler and Bob Baffert respectively. Jes Jaa and Police Escort are both by sires whose progeny tend to do well at first asking.
Arabian Leopard, trained by Bob Baffert, has disappointed badly as the Post Time Favorite in each of his two career starts. Still, Arabian Leopard merits another chance based upon the troubled trips he has received.
Papa Papa Papa, trained by Mark Glatt, and Oppidum, trained by Bob Baffert, are each making their second career start after having shown good early speed in their respective debuts. Xanto and Nothingelsematters are on the ticket because they're the only two runners left in the field who aren't "A" or "B" Selections; so now we'e got all bases covered.
RACE 7 - The Twilight Derby (Grade 2) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Om (ML 9-5)
B's
# 2 Mister Brightside (Ire) (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 1 Hunt (Ire) (ML 8-1)
# 6 Soul Driver (ML 9-2)
# 4 Ground Rules (ML 6-1) and # 7 Daddy D T (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Om, winner of the Del Mar Derby last time out, probably won't get a trip as smooth as he did in that event; but Om looks to be at the top of his game, so he may not need it. Mister Brightside (Ire) makes his North American debut after winning a pair of Handicap Stakes at Newmarket. Mister Brightside showed good early foot in his contests in Great Britain; those who do so tend to do well in North America. Conversely, Hunt (Ire) and Soul Driver, look to be the ones who will be running best late if it should all fall apart on the front end.
RACE 8 - The Big Bear $70k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Dortmund (ML 4-5)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Cat Burglar (ML 9-2) has been scratched.
Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert, makes his first start after finishing fourth in The Preakness back in May. Dortmund's works were far from sharp up to and including the five furlongs he put in on September 25; however, after skipping a week, Dortmund came back to scorch the morning track with a pair of bullets.
Dortmund is the clear class of this field, and has shown the ability in the past to win off just works. On the other hand, this will be Dortmund's first time facing older horses. It's also fair to wonder just how hard Dortmund will be ridden today, as his connections certainly didn't put him back into training just to win a $70k listed stake.
So for those reasons, it seems prudent to have a backup on the ticket. If Dortmund should fail to fire, Point Piper, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, looks to be the best of the rest.
RACE 9 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 British Bulldog (ML 7-2)
B's
# 5 Strong Values (ML 6-1)
# 6 Unapologetic (ML 8-1)
# 7 Canada (ML 4-1)
# 8 Quality Line (ML 10-1)
# 9 Above Board (ML 8-1)
# 11 Aztec Warrior (ML 5-1)
C's
# 1 Mr. Roary (ML 12-1)
# 3 Opening Roads (ML 15-1)
British Bulldog took the Place at this class level at today's distance in his debut last time out, though he seemed to have had some difficulty making it the full eight furlongs.
Strong Values, Unapologetic, and Canada, each have two career starts, and each appears capable of making a significant move forward. Quality Line tries turf for the first time; if his early speed from the main track carries over, Quality Line could really smoke the grass today.
Above Board, trained by Bob Baffert, and Aztec Warrior, trained by Doug O'Neill and sired by Kitten's Joy, are a pair of first time starters who look to be ready to run. Mr. Roary and Opening Roads are another pair of debut runners who could find themselves in the Winner's Circle today.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 10 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,4,5,8,9 with 2,3 with 5 with 5,6,7,8,9,10,11 $49.00
$0.50 P4: 6,7 with 3 with 5 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 1,6 with 5 with 10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 3 with 10 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 4,9 with 3 with 5 with 1,3 $2.00
Total: $57.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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