Sunday, October 11, 2015

10/11/15 Santa Anita Pick Five - Preview

"Sometimes it's the smallest decisions that can change your life forever." - Keri Russell

Going to change things up a bit today, and shift my action from the back portion of the Santa Anita card to the front.  I guess I'm just in the mood for some Maiden races, as four of the first five contests on the program are for non-winners of one.  So with that, let's take a run at The Pick Five at The Great Race Place.

RACE 1 - Md $30k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Kelly With a Twist (Morning Line 9-5)
# 5 Unbridled Rocket (ML 8-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Rincon (ML 12-1)

Kelly With a Twist showed good early speed last time out in what was his first foray into the maiden claiming ranks.  Unbridled Rocket has finished in the money at this class level in each of his last three starts.  Kelly With a Twist and Unbridled Rocket are both making their first starts since having undergone the ultimate equipment change.  Rincon has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures in each of his four career starts.

RACE 2 - (F) Clm $12.5k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Myrna Lou (ML 4-1)

B’s

# 3 Foxy Lover (ML 3-1)
# 5 Fab Four Ever (ML 2-1)

C's

# 2 Flexible Ethics (ML 6-1)
# 6 Oleanderpolarbear (ML 8-1)
# 7 Aloha Ke Akua (ML 4-1)

# 4 Elusive Mistress (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Myrna Lou took the Place last time out at this class level, and was victorious in her only prior try over this main track.

Foxy Lover and Fab Four Ever are tied for the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.  So why are neither one an "A" Selection?  Well, Foxy Lover was claimed in that last contest, and now goes for a barn that is oh-for-twenty when sending out a runner the first time off a claim.  As for Fab Four Ever, she is making a pretty significant move up the class ladder; for while Fab Four Ever was in for a higher price tag in her last race ($16k) that contest was limited to runners who had not yet won two races in their careers; while this claiming event is without conditions.

Oleanderpolarbear could be quickest early.  Aloha Ke Akua goes first off the claim for Trainer Bill Spawr, who wins with nearly a third of such.  Flexible Ethics is on the ticket because I won't use "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race wager.

RACE 3 - (F) MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 9 Unbridled Summer (ML 3-1)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Lindeza (ML 4-1)

Unbridled Summer has taken the Place at this class level in each of her two prior career starts.  Lindeza is a first time starter sired by Harlan's Holiday, whose progeny tend to do well in their first attempts.

RACE 4 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 6 Lemon Drop Sis (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 2 Dreamarcher (ML 4-1)
# 7 Riri (ML 5-1)
# 9 Winemenow (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Martha's Kid (ML 50-1)

The Also Eligibles (# 12 Perfect Drama (ML 6-1); # 13 Last Resort (ML 9-2); # 14 Friulian (ML 5-1)) get to stay in the barn and argue about whether to watch the NFL games or the MLB playoffs.

Lemon Drop Sis showed good early speed on the dirt in her debut last time out.  Dreamarcher took the Show in her debut at this class level last time out.  Riri is a first time starter sired by Speightstown, whose offspring tend to do well in their first attempts and when competing on grass.

Winemenow is also from a sire whose offspring do rather well at first asking.  Martha's Kid showed absolutely nothing in her debut on dirt last time out; but, as a daughter of Lemon Drop Kid, it's fair to expect her to improve with the move to the turf.

RACE 5 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Xerxes (ML 6-1)
# 7 Ladies Man (ML 5-2)

B's

# 4 Son of Eleanor (ML 8-1)
# 8 Warren My Boy (ML 4-1)

C's

# 12 Spirit World (ML 12-1)

Xerxes took the Show at this class level last time out, and could be the quickest out of the gate in this field.  Ladies Man missed by less than a length at this class level in each of his last two races.

Son of Eleanor was much improved last time out, and could win today with a similar effort.  Warren My Boy's form looks a lot better if you toss that one try around two turns.  First time starter Spirit World is out of Rita Rucker, who has produced multiple winners, including multiple stakes winner Private World; but the fact that Spirit World is being offered for sale in his debut for just one third of what it cost for him to be sired can't be viewed as a positive.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 9 with 6 with 5,7 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1,3,5 with 9 with 2,6,7,9 with 4,5,7,8 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P5: 1 with 1 with 9 with 6 with 5,7 $1.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 2,6,7 with 9 with 6 with 5,7 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 7 with 6 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 9 with 3 with 5,7 $2.00
$0.50 P5: 4,5 with 1 with 9 with 6 with 12 $1.00

Total: $64.00

Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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