Sunday, October 25, 2015

10/25/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Since the Breeders' Cup will be elsewhere this year, Sunday is the final day of the current meet at Santa Anita.  The Grade 3 Senator Ken Maddy is on the card today; should be a good one, but since it'll be run as Race 5 it won't be a part of our play, as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - Clm $8k - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 American Blend (Morning Line 4-1)

B’s

# 3 Planet Sunshine (ML 7-2)
# 8 Carlsbad Mountain (ML 6-1)
# 10 Qatar's Pearl (ML 8-1)

C's

# 7 Captain Corrigan (ML 8-1)

# 4 Cant Do the Danse (ML 4-1) and # 6 Dekko (Arg) (ML 5-1) have been scratched.

American Blend was less than a length behind the winner at the wire while taking the Place two starts back at this class level.  Planet Sunshine took the Show against more expensive two starts back; but that's been Plant Sunshine's only in the money finish since leaving the barn of Trainer Art Sherman.

Carlsbad Mountain could be the quickest in this field out of the gate.  Qatar's Pearl missed by just a neck at this class level two starts back.  Captain Corrigan had a nice bullet work over this main track last Sunday; but the jump up the class ladder is a concern.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 6 China Girl Lover (ML 4-1)
# 11 Chief of Staff (ML 3-1)

B’s

None

C's

# 7 Got Even (ML 9-2)

# 5 You Know I Know (ML 8-1) has been scratched.

China Girl Lover has won both of his 2015 starts, and has finished in the Exacta in all three of his career starts on a fast dirt track.  Chief of Staff missed winning at this class level last time out by just a neck.  Perhaps today will be the day that Got Even decides not to settle for a minor award.

RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 2 Odin (ML 6-1)
# 7 Global Magician (ML 5-2)

B’s

None

C's

# 4 Wildcat Sailor (ML 6-1)
# 6 Circle the Moon (ML 15-1)
# 9 Smokey's Legacy (ML 8-1)

Odin took the Place at this class level the last time he charged down the hill.  Global Magician has shown the ability to compete at this level and higher; though Global Magician has also settled for more than his fair share of minor awards.

Wildcat Sailor tries the turf for the first time; his pedigree suggests that he should handle it well.  Circle the Moon drops in cheap after an extended vacation; while that's certainly a red flag, the fact that Mike Smith will be on board means that Circle the Moon's chances must be respected.  Smokey's Legacy should improve with the return to turf.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 5 Travel Bound (ML 8-1)
# 6 Lucky Reality (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Popsracer (ML 20-1)
# 8 Cass in Stone (ML 7-2)
# 9 Resistanceisfutile (ML 6-1)
# 14 Where's Bubba (ML 4-1)

C's

# 7 Da Jenius (ML 12-1)

# 3 Born to Serve (No Line) and # 13 Cape Royal (NL) are program scratches.

Travel Bound should improve with the return to dirt, along with the drop in class.  Lucky Reality may also improve with the return to dirt.  

Popsracer wanted no part of two turns last time out, and should improve with the class drop.  Cass in Stone has taken the Place in each of his last two races, both at today's class level.  Where's Bubba looks to be quickest, but with the outside draw he may have to work out a stalking trip.

Resistanceisfutile took the Show at this class level last time out.  Da Jenius drops in for a tag for the first time in his career.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $8.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 3,5,8,10 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 4,5,6,8,9,14 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 7 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 5,6 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 7 with 2,7 with 5,6 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 4,6,9 with 5,6 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 5 with 6,11 with 2,7 with 7 $2.00

Total: $70.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:43 EDT / 3:43 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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