10/3/15 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Super Saturday Part II across North American, with a final round of Graded Stakes taking place in preparation of the upcoming Breeders' Cup.  Out in SoCal the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship is the featured event.  It goes as Race 8 on the card, and will be examined below, as we take yet another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 7 - OC 40k/C - Eight Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Tiz Dynamic (Morning Line 15-1)
# 9 Chief of Staff (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 1 Big Tire (ML 4-1)
# 2 Got Even (ML 6-1)
# 5 Tried and True (ML 5-1)

C's

# 6 Skip Tony (ML 8-1)

# 11 Spud Spivens (ML 20-1) does not draw in off the Also Eligible List.

The conditions limit this contest to runners which:

1) Have never won $10k other than maiden, claiming, or starter; OR

2) Have never won two races; OR

3) Will run for a claiming price of $40k.

For the record, the only two going for a tag are Tiz Dynamic and Skip Tony.

Only one of Tiz Dynamic's ten races so far in 2015 has been on a fast dirt track; and that one just happens to be the race where Tiz Dynamic earned his best Beyer Speed Figure of this year, a number which is probably good enough to get the job done today.  Chief of Staff, one of two in this contest trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures over his last three races.

Big Tire has proven to be competitive at this approximate class level, though he does settle for a great many minor awards.  Got Even looks to be the speed of the speed here.  Tried and True could improve with the return to dirt.  Skip Tony, the "other" Hollendorfer, took the Show at this approximate class level last time out.

RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Masochistic (ML 9-5)

# 6 Wild Dude (ML 4-1)

B's

None

C's

# 3 Glacken Too (ML 20-1)

# 4 Kobe's Back (ML 8-1)

# 5 Distinctiv Passion (ML 6-1)

# 1 San Onofre (ML 6-1) is a program scratch.  # 7 Indexical (ML 20-1) and # 8 Gimmie Da Lute (ML 3-1) have also been scratched.

In the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar in July, Wild Dude crossed the wire first with Masochistic taking the Place.  In the Grade 1 Triple Bend run over this main track back in June, it was Masochistic getting the Win with Wild Dude taking the Show.  These appear to be the classiest two runners in this field, and I don't see much to choose from between the two.

Distinctiv Passion's early speed may take him closer to the wire today than it did in The Bing Crosby; his workout on 9/27 suggests that he'll be ready to fly today.  Kobe's Back looks to be the one who will be running best late.  Glacken Too, trained by Phil D'Amato, is on the ticket because I won't let myself use "ALL but one" in any leg of a multi-race sequence.

RACE 9 - [R] (F) The Swingtime $70k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 3 Gender Agenda (GB) (ML 7-2)

B's

# 5 Alexis Tangier (ML 4-1)

C's

# 9 Intoxicating Move (ML 12-1)

# 11 Colonel Joan (ML 15-1) is a program scratch.

This one is restricted to fillies and mares which have not won a stakes at eight furlongs or greater for more than $60k in 2015, excluding state bred only stakes.

Gender Agenda (GB) enters this contest with a two race winning streak.  While those two victories came with Gender Agenda up near the pace, it was her late kick that got the job done in both those races.

Alexis Tangier should appreciate the class relief.  Intoxicating Move has finished in the Trifecta eight of the ten times that she's competed on this turf course.

RACE 10 - Clm $50k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Krsto Skye (ML 15-1)

# 3 Mr. Jay D (ML 4-1)

# 13 Great Lou (ML 7-2)

B’s

# 9 Henry's Holiday (ML 6-1)

# 12 Where Y'at Joe Joe (ML 8-1)

C's

None

# 8 Exemplar (ML 30-1) is a program scratch.

Krsto Skye looked good against ungraded stakes company in his one prior try on a fast dirt track, finishing just behind Mr. Jay D.  I'm presuming that Mr. Jay D just didn't like the grass his last time out.  Great Lou, four-for-five in his career on the Santa Anita main track, goes first off the claim for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.

Henry's Holiday took the Place the last time that he competed at today's class level.  Where Y'at Joe Joe has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 3,9 with 2,6 with 3 with 2,3,13 $12.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,5,9 with 2,6 with 3,5 with 2,3,9,12,13 $50.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 2,6 with 3 with 2,3,13 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 3,4,5 with 3 with 2,3,13 $9.00

$0.50 P4: 3,9 with 2,6 with 9 with 2,3,13 $6.00

Total: $80.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 7:12 EDT / 4:12 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo