10/18/15 Belmont Park Late Pick Four - Preview

In an interesting twist on the weather front, Sunday is forecast to be dry in New York, while late afternoon showers are predicted for Southern California.  So we're going to finish the weekend as we began, by taking a run at The Late Pick Four at Belmont Park.

RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Wicked One (Morning Line 5-1)

B's

# 2 Thundering Sky (ML 15-1)
# 3 Verve's Tale (ML 151)
# 9 Lewis Bay (ML 3-1)

C's

# 1 Estelle / #1A Spinstress (ML 5-1)

Wicked One showed good early interest in her debut last time out.  Wicked One is trained by Mark Casse, who tends to do quite well with runners making their second attempt to graduate.  Thundering Sky and Verve's Tale are by a pair of stallions (Sky Mesa and Tale of Ekati, respectively) whose offspring tend to do well at first asking.  

Lewis Bay just missed graduating in her debut last time out; but that was on an off track, which her breeding suggests she should handle well; so Lewis Bay may not move forward with the switch to a non-wet surface.  Spinstress is sired by Hard Spun, whose progeny seem to win more than their fair share at the seven furlong distance.

RACE  8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Inner Turf Course

A's

# 1 Tammy the Torpedo (ML 3-1)
# 8 Morning Star (ML 8-1)

B's

# 4 Achnaha (ML 10-1)
# 5 Ortiga (Ire) (ML 12-1)

C's

# 9 Gigi's Kitten (ML 7-2)
# 12 Coming Attraction (ML 4-1)

Scratch # 2 Vale Ridge (ML 50-1) and # 11 Tennessee Whiskey (ML 15-1); but don't bring in either of the Also Eligibles, # 13 Love's Illusion (ML 20-1) nor # 14 De Marquee (ML 30-1).  And on a beautiful day like today, the Main Track Onlies, # 15 Piccolo Flats (ML 3-1) and # 16 Jules N Rome (ML 2-1), get the afternoon off.

Tammy the Torpedo returns to action after a one year absence for Trainer Chad Brown, who wins with close to 30% of those coming back from an extended vacation.  Morning Star has taken the Place in three of her last four starts at this class level, and may find herself with a good stalking trip behind # 7 Elementsofharmony (ML 20-1).

Achnaha (Ire) has been within two lengths of the winner at the wire at this class level in each of her last two starts.  Ortiga (Ire) took the Place at this class level two starts back.  Ortiga also showed good early speed in her starts in Ireland; it would be very helpful to her cause if Ortiga could return to that running style here today.

Gigi's Kitten got away with very soft fractions when she broke her maiden last time out; still, her connections and her bloodlines warrant respect here.  Coming Attraction would normally receive strong consideration as an "A" Selection in a field of this quality; but I feel that the far outside post may be too great a handicap for her to overcome in this course configuration.

RACE 9 - OC 62k/N2X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Grand Bili (ML 3-5)

B’s

# 1 Nubin Ridge (ML 8-1)

C's

# 3 Second City (ML 12-1)
# 7 Songa (ML 8-1)

# 6 Padre Graz (ML 20-1) has been scratched.

Grand Bili drops into the Optional Claiming ranks from Graded Stakes company after failing to hit the board in either of his last two starts.  If Grand Bili returns to the form that he displayed this Summer then he'll win easily here.  However, if Grand Bili runs as he did last time out at Parx, well, he may still win, but it'll be a much closer affair.

Nubin Ridge defeated open $50k Claimers last time out, with Second City just a head behind.  Nubin Ridge has shown a steadily improving form since joining the barn of Trainer Chris Englehart this past Summer.  Songa has shown good tactical speed (albeit against cheaper) and could get a nice stalking trip here.

RACE 10 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Widener Turf Course

A’s

# 4 Giant Run (ML 8-1)
# 10 War Order (ML 3-1)

B's

# 3 Snag (ML 5-1)
# 9 Catapult (ML 7-2)

C's

# 6 Vulcan's Forge (ML 20-1)
# 11 Oscar Mike (ML 6-1)

Giant Run took the Place on the dirt at this class level last time out.  Since Giant Run is by Giant's Causeway, it's fair to presume that his form will hold with the switch to the turf.  

War Order has finished in the Trifecta in each of her two prior career starts at this class level.  Snag, trained by Todd Pletcher, is a first time starter sired by Harlan's Holiday, whose get tend to do rather well in their initial career tries.  Catapult is a first time starter by Kitten's Joy, and everyone knows that those cats are tough on the grass.

Vulcan's Forge showed some late interest in his debut last time out.  Oscar Mike tries two turns for the first time after taking the Show at this class level in each of his two prior career starts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets in Crist fashion, we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 1,8 with 2 with 4,10 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 2,3,4,9 with 1,4,5,8 with 1,2 with 3,4,9,10 $64.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 1,8 with 2 with 4,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 9,12 with 2 with 4,10 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,8 with 3,7 with 4,10 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 4 with 1,8 with 2 with 6,11 $2.00

Total: $78.00

Post Time for Race 7 is 4:13 EDT / 1:13 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo