Another Sunday, another closing day for a horse racing meeting. Last weekend we saw the ending of Del Mar's Fall Meeting in Southern California. This weekend we turn to Northern California, as Golden Gate Fields calls an end to activities until Boxing Day. As is typically the case, everything must go on a meet's final day, including The Rainbow Pick Six, which is otherwise a jackpot wager, requiring that there be only one ticket in the universe with the winning sequence in order for the entire pool to pay out. Normally I would be chasing said jackpot; however, I decided this go-round that I would stick with my more usual play, the Late Pick Four. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at The Bay's Best Bet.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $20k - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Marilyn's Smile (Morning Line 10-1)
B’s
# 4 Gettin Sideways (ML 6-1)
# 7 Never for Money (ML 5-2)+
# 9 Redstwirlingdancer (ML 10-1)
C's
# 10 Damn the Torpedoes (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 11 Do You Hear That (ML 12-1)
Marilyn's Smile was a winner over this track two starts back against $25k Claimers. However, Marilyn's Smile raced again about three weeks after that victory, and then hasn't competed since. Unless it comes to be that Marilyn's Smile is so out of shape Sunday that it can be visually discerned in the Post Parade, I can't imagine Marilyn's Post Time odds to be higher than 5-1; but, you never know.
Never For Money is the Morning Line Favorite; and while Never For Money appears to be a legitimate contender, I don't see her as a standout in this field. If I anticipated Never For Money being a short priced Favorite, I would place her in the category of either being singled or tossed. But I expect Never For Money to be more of a lukewarm Favorite, and I think I have her slotted correctly in my play.
Damn the Torpedoes is quick, and Damn the Torpedoes might appreciate the turnback in distance. Personally, I don't think that's enough to consider Damn the Torpedoes a likely contender; but half a buck is a decent price to pay to see if this is going to be Damn the Torpedoes' lucky day.
RACE 10 - ALW N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 8 Kings River Knight (ML 7-2)
B's
# 6 Royal 'n Rando (ML 6-1)+
C's
# 1 J T's Watch (ML 30-1)+
# 2 Anitanewmercedes (ML 5-2)
# 3 Shotgun Express (Ire) (ML 2-1)
# 5 Derecho Dandy (ML 30-1)
# 7 House of Lords (ML 9-2)
# 9 Secret Club (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 4 Lost In Space (Ire) (No Line) and # 10 Runkerry (ML 30-1)
This was a tough one; not for determining the contenders, but for deciding how many spots to allocate for this leg on the main ticket. In my opinion, Kings River Knight is a legitimate Favorite, worthy of consideration as a main ticket single. Kings River Knight took the Place at this class level over this main track last time out, and I'm of the belief that if Kings River Knight replicates that effort today, then he'll be the one getting his picture taken when this contest is over.
So that being the case, why am I doubling the cost of my main ticket by adding another runner; especially a runner that was almost three lengths behind Kings River Knight at the wire last time out? Short(ish) answer: Royal 'n Rando's last race was his first after having been on the bench for over ninety days. Since Royal 'n Rando shows a couple of five furlong workouts over this main track since that race, it means that he came out of that contest well.
Therefore, I see a lot of potential upside to Royal 'n Rando today. Granted, you can't put potential on the bar and order drinks with it; but I think Royal 'n Rando has the opportunity to significantly improve over his last effort. Combine that with the likelihood that Royal 'n Rando will be overlooked in the Late Pick Four pool due to the distance that he finished behind Kings River Knight, and I believe firmly that the cost of adding Royal 'n Rando to the main ticket is more than justified.
RACE 11 - (F) The Miss America $50k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 8 Tiz an Edventure (ML 8-5)
B's
# 7 Sugar Fix (ML 8-1)
# 10 Northwest Factor (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Cowboys Daughter (ML 15-1)+
# 3 Clockstrikestwelve (ML 15-1)+
# 3 Clockstrikestwelve (ML 15-1)+
# 4 Natural Colour (GB) (ML 9-2)
# 6 Shezaghost (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 11 Le Reine's Legacy (ML 8-1)
I'm going three deep here, which includes the Morning Line 8-5 Favorite, Tiz an Edventure. Truth be told, Tiz and Edventure's Morning Line Odds suggests that she should either be a single or a toss. But I think I can make an exception to that guideline in this particular case due to the large(ish) size of this field, as well as the presence of several fresh faces.
Of course, the problem with adding runners to the main ticket in this type of situation is that, regardless of result, I quite likely will find myself feeling that I played this leg wrong. That is, should Tiz an Edventure win, I'll be thinking that I should have made her a main ticket single; whereas if Tiz an Edventure should lose, lest it be by the slimmest of margins, I'll be second guessing my decision not to leave her off the main ticket. So it is when it comes to handicapping; some decisions are going to look wrong regardless if you turn left or right, and there's no way to ever know for a certainty which course of action is the correct one to take is similar situations in the future.
RACE 12 - MSW - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Papa Tiger (ML 9-2)
B's
# 1 Idiot's Gold (ML 7-2)
# 5 Impressive Curls (ML 6-1)+
C's
# 9 Sixtyfour G T O (ML 8-1)
# 10 Way too Hot (ML 15-1)+
# 11 Havakash Ready (ML 8-1)+
# 10 Way too Hot (ML 15-1)+
# 11 Havakash Ready (ML 8-1)+
# 13 Shanagolden (ML 10-1)
Scratch # 12 Easter Tribute (ML 12-1) and # 14 The Sandy Surprise (ML 10-1)
To put it in polite terms, I disagree with this Morning Line in general, and its choice of Morning Line Favorite in particular. Of course, when it comes down to nuts and bolts handicapping, a poorly made Morning Line is of no major concern. Once you spot such a creature, you simply note in your mind that the public is unlikely to wager this race in that manner, and proceed accordingly. Still, poorly made Morning Lines tend to make for interesting dinner table conversations.
As to my selections, I think I got this one right. The presence of several in this race that are worthy of graduation by either replicating their last out performance, or just improving to the slightest degree, suggests that it will be formfully run. That is, the presence of several solid contenders means that they all would have to regress in order for this contest to fall apart. So if I make it this far in my play, I should be feeling confident in my selections (but, of course, never count your chickens before they've hatched).
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, combined with some recent alterations, I get:
All A Entries
$2.00 P4: 2 with 8 with 8 with 2 $2.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,4,7,9 with 6,8 with 7,8,10 with 1,2,5 $36.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 6,8 with 2,3,8 with 5,10,11 $18.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 10 with 8 with 8 with 2 $0.50
$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,2,3,5,7,9 with 8 with 2 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 4,6 with 2 $1.00
$0.50 P4: 2 with 8 with 8 with 9,13 $1.00
Total: $61.50
Post Time for Race 9 is 6:15 EST / 3:15 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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