"The ancient Greek definition of happiness was the full use of your powers along lines of excellence." - John F. Kennedy
As someone who (more or less) regularly follows the Southern California thoroughbred circuit, I used to play Los Alamitos Race Course when they assumed dates that previously had belonged to Hollywood Park (December), as well as those dates that had once belonged to Fairplex Park, aka Los Angeles County Fairgrounds (September). But a few years back Los Alamitos Race Course decided to raise the minimum on my preferred wager, The Pick Four, from fifty cents to a dollar. Which, quite frankly, puts the play outside my budget.
But, with my recent success, I figure now's a good a time as any to take a chance at the higher stakes. Among the factors that went into my decision was the knowledge that I could blame the higher base wager should I be unsuccessful today. Besides, it's closing day for the meet; and fun things tend to happen on closing days. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Late Pick Four at Orange County's own Los Alamitos Race Course.
RACE 7 - Clm $8k N2X - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Mighty Matt (Morning Line 5-1)
B’s
# 7 Harper's Gem (ML 6-1)+
# 8 Catbernay (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Count Tolstoy (ML 30-1)
# 2 Sayers (ML 20-1)
# 3 Street Behavior (ML 30-1)
# 5 Swamp'n Ain't Ez (ML 9-5)
# 6 Rawhide Rawlins (ML 7-2)
A five and a half furlong sprint, with many of these runners often found circling this track at night. This one could be wild.
As I'm sure you've already noticed, Morning Line Favorite Swamp'n Ain't Ez is not my top pick. Granted, based upon his Show finish last time out at this approximate class level, Swamp'n Ain't Ez deserves strong consideration. But Swamp'n Ain't Ez has had difficulty making the distance when competing during the day; including in his last victory over this track in its long stretch variation. It's my opinion that Swamp'n Ain't Ez will be very much overused in the pools.
Okay; so if not Swamp'n Ain't Ez, then who? Mighty Matt looks good off the class drop, as well as having a name that I could grow to love. Harper's Gem is replicating many of the same steps that he followed the last time that he won over this track at today's class level. Catbernay is another that could thrive with the class relief.
All runners are being used in some fashion in this leg, as, again, this one has the potential for chaos written all over it. Unless, of course, Swamp'n Ain't Ez shows no problems at all with getting the distance; in which case I will be shown to be very wrong in my analysis.
RACE 8 - (F) Alw 12500s - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Talkative Gal (ML 9-5)
B’s
None
C's
# 2 Flat Out Joy (ML 7-2)
# 6 Rain Diva (ML 5-1)+
Note for future reference that, unlike many Starter Allowances run in California, this event has no lifetime Win restrictions for entry. The only requirement for this contest is that the runner must be of the distaff variety, three years old or upward, and she must have started for a claiming price of $12.5k or less. I see no timeline in the conditions as given in my Past Performances, so apparently that start for a claiming price of $12.5k or less could have happened anytime in the history of mankind.
Talkative Gal won by daylight over this track just eight days ago. If Talkative Gal came out of that contest okay, then this isn't going to be much of a race.
Flat Out Joy returns off the freshening; and while Flat Out Joy is a solid contender in this field, Flat Out Joy settles for too many minor awards. Rain Diva could be the speed of the speed.
RACE 9 - [S] OC 20k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Prodigal Son (ML 6-1)
B’s
# 1 Sawasdee (ML 9-2)+
# 5 Windribbon (ML 5-1)
# 7 Disko Tribute (ML 7-2)
# 7 Disko Tribute (ML 7-2)
# 8 Larry's Legend (ML 9-2)
C's
# 2 Head for Business (ML 12-1)
# 3 Joe Don Looney (ML 5-1)+
# 4 Alpine Thunder (ML 5-1)
For all those who take an interest in such matters, there are no entrants in this field which will be competing with the $20k claiming price tag hanging over their head.
As with the opening leg of this sequence, I'll be using all runners in this leg in some shape or form. Part of the reason for the wide spread in this contest is because the first level Allowance Optional Claiming (OC/N1X) races on the SoCal circuit, both state bred and open company, tend to be very competitive.
If someone was looking to cut down on the cost of their Late Pick Four play, it would be very tempting to lean heavily on Prodigal Son and/or Sawasdee in this leg, as both turned in performances in their last out race which, if replicated, would almost certainly win today. Personally, I think that Prodigal Son and Sawasdee have some minor question marks regarding how they will run today. Specifically, both were claimed last time out. Sawasdee will therefore be riding for a new barn; while Prodigal Son's claim was voided, and Prodigal Son then went on to spend the next three months on the sidelines. Neither of these factoids, in my opinion, disqualifies either runner from being considered a top contender in this field; but it does, in my mind, confirm that spreading in this leg is not just prudent, but the better way to go.
RACE 10 - [S] The King Glorious $100k - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Belly Up (ML 7-2)
B's
# 2 Geezer (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Giver Not a Taker (ML 2-1)
# 6 Amigo G A (ML 15-1)
# 8 Tom and Jazzy (ML 5-1)
Were this event a sprint, I would almost certainly be leaning heavily upon Giver Not a Taker in this leg. But this stakes is not a sprint; and I have serious questions regarding Giver Not a Taker's ability to get all eight furlongs without running out of gas. So it's Belly Up and Geezer on the main ticket, with Giver Not a Taker being used as a backup "C" Selection at the cost of a buck.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$5.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 6 with 4 $5.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,7,8 with 3 with 1,5,6,7,8 with 2,4 $30.00
All A Entries with All B+ Entries with All C+ Entries
$1.00 P4: 4,7 with 3,6 with 1,3,6 with 4 $12.00
A's with One C
$1.00 P4: 1,2,3,5,6 with 3 with 6 with 4 $5.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 2 with 6 with 4 $1.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 2,4 with 4 $2.00
$1.00 P4: 4 with 3 with 6 with 1,6,8 $3.00
Total: $58.00
Post Time for Race 5 is 6:12 EST / 3:12 PST. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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