Saturday, May 12, 2018

5/12/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's the catch your breath Saturday between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, and so we turn our full attention back to Santa Anita.  The featured race in Arcadia today is the Grade 3 Lazaro Barrera, which, unfortunately, did not find its way into the final four races on the card.  However, we do get a Listed Stakes in the form of the Angels Flight; a contest which I'll be looking at below as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 4 Conquest Typhoon (Morning Line 5-2)

B’s

# 5 Ronald R (Ire) (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Hawks Peak (ML 10-1)
# 6 Lucky Bryan (ML 4-1)
# 8 Ya Gotta Wanna (ML 7-2)

Conquest Typhoon goes second off the layoff; Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well with such.  Ronald R (Ire), a victor upstate last time out, fits well here on class.

Hawks Peak is out of a Giant's Causeway mare, and therefore should do well with the move to the lawn.  Lucky Bryan may still need a race after the extended layoff; but Lucky Bryan can certainly win at this class level.  Ya Gotta Wanna has shown steady improvement in each of his three turf starts.

RACE 7 - Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 7 Trojan Time (ML 4-1)

B's

# 6 Awesome E K (ML 3-1)
# 8 Downside Up  (ML 2-1)
# 9 Lion Command (ML 4-1)

C's

None

Trojan Time took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.  Awesome E K was within a length of the winner at the wire at this class level last time out.  Downside Up may be best here; but Downside Up seems to settle for too many minor awards.  Lion Command has taken the Show each of the two prior times that he has competed over a Fast dirt track.

RACE 8 - (F) The Angels Flight $75k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Show It N Moe It (ML 6-1)

B's

# 2 Moonshine Memories (ML 5-2)
# 6 Uppercut (ML 7-2)
# 9 Thirteen Squared (ML 4-1)

C's

# 4 Embolden (ML 8-1)
# 7 Highland Lass (ML 12-1)

# 8 True Royalty (ML 8-1)

Show It N Moe It, the most experienced runner in this field of three year old fillies, misses by just a neck at being a perfect three-for-three for 2018.  Moonshine Memories is making her three year old debut here, and if she is ready to run off the layoff she could certainly get her picture taken today.

Uppercut, Show runner in the Beaumont last time out, could move up with the return to her home track.  Thirteen Squared should benefit from not having to compete against Midnight Bisou again; though it's unclear if the return to one turn racing will help or hurt Thirteen Squared.

Embolden, well beaten by Show It N Moe It last time out, could move up off the freshening.  Highland Lass and True Royalty were just a neck apart at the wire while filling out the Exacta last time out, and both look like they will be able to handle the extra half furlong distance.

RACE 9 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 5 What's Bruin (ML 3-1)
# 9 Token Vow (ML 4-1)
# 12 Unchaining Melody (GB) (ML 7-2)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Star Kissed (ML 20-1)
# 2 Camino Song (Ire) (ML 12-1)
# 4 Don't Blame Judy (ML 8-1)
# 7 Journal Entry (ML 8-1)
# 8 Thalia (ML 15-1)
# 10 Katherine (ML 12-1)
# 11 Love of Art (Ire) (ML 8-1)

Scratch # 3 Lucky Outcome (ML 15-1) and # 6 Baladera (ML 20-1)

What's Bruin took the Place at this class level on the main track last time out.  What's Bruin's breeding suggests that she will handle the surface switch well.  Token Vow took the Show at this class level while charging down the Santa Anita hill in her debut last time out.  Unchaining Melody (GB) closed well in her first try down the hill last time out.

Star Kissed and Katherine are on the ticket because everyone else is.  Camino Song (Ire), one of three here trained by Phil D'Amato, could move up off the layoff.  Don't Blame Judy, Journal Entry, Thalia, and Love of Art (Ire) are a quartet of first time starters that could be ready at first asking in a field that doesn't appear to have a true standout.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 5,9,12 $3.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 4,5 with 6,7,8,9 with 1,2,6,9 with 5,9,12 $48.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 3,6,8 with 7 with 1 with 5,9,12 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 4,7,8 with 5,9,12 $4.50
$0.50 P4: 4 with 7 with 1 with 1,2,4,7,8,10,11 $3.50

Total: $63.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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