Sunday, May 27, 2018

5/27/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

The featured race on Sunday's card in Arcadia is the Desert Stormer, a Grade 3 sprint for fillies and mares to be run over the main track.  The Desert Stormer did find its way into the final four contests on the program; which is somewhat surprising, as it did only draw five entrants.  Be that as it may, I will be taking a look at the Desert Stormer below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) Md $20k - Five Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Saint Tropez (Morning Line 2-1)

B's

# 6 Irish Cream N Kate (ML 6-1)
# 8 Baby Brown (ML 5-2)
# 9 Calimonco Action (ML 10-1)

C's

None

Saint Tropaez tumbles all the way down the class ladder after showing good early speed in each of her two starts against non-Claiming Maidens.  Irish Cream N Kate could move up with the cutback in distance.  Baby Brown took the Place at this class level in her debut last time out, and now goes first off the claim for Trainer Billy Morey, who tends to do well with such.  Calimonco Action took the Show at this class level last time out.

RACE 7 - (F) The Black Pearl $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 7 Special Purpose (ML 2-1)

B's

# 2 Ahimsa (ML 5-2)
# 6 Factorofwon (ML 5-1)

C's

# 3 Cute Knows Cute (ML 6-1)
# 5 Sappho (Ire) (ML 5-1)

Special Purpose makes her North American debut here, as well as her first start in 2018.  Special Purpose took the Show in a Group 3 outing two starts back, so she certainly fits here on class; now it's just a question of how she'll do navigating the downhill course.

Ahimsa did quite well in her first turf try last time out.  Factorofwon, fifth in that contest, could improve going third off the layoff.

Cute Knows Cute had to drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks in order to graduate last time out; still, Cute Knows Cute should be forwardly placed, and Trainer Peter Miller tends to do well when placing his last out winners.  Sappho (Ire) appears to be the one that will be running best late.

RACE 8 - (F) The Desert Stormer (Grade 3) - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 4 Miss Sunset (ML 6-5)
# 5 Marley's Freedom (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 1 Cuyathy (ML 10-1)
# 2 Classy Tune (ML 4-1)
# 3 Yuvetsi (ML 8-1)

Miss Sunset and Marley's Freedom are the two best horses in this contest; and while picking one and ditching the other is a very tempting proposition (as it would halve the cost of the big ticket), there's just not enough difference between the two (in my opinion) to justify the selection of one over the other.  The "C" Selections are everyone else; because in a five horse field, why not?

RACE 9 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 4 Jimmy Chila (ML 7-2)

B's

# 1 Stonegate (ML 8-1)
# 5 Data Central (ML 4-1)
# 8 Paddock Pick (ML 3-1)
# 9 Brighton Boy (ML 6-1)

C's

# 3 Breakers Isle (ML 15-1)
# 7 King Caymus (ML 12-1)

Scratch # 2 Hollywood Square (ML 10-1)

Jimmy Chila failed last time out in his first try charging down the Santa Anita hill; perhaps the experience will serve him well. Stonegate and Brighton Boy are a pair of first time starters that could be ready to roll.  Data Central took the Place in his debut last time out routing on the Del Mar turf course.

Paddock Pick tries the grass for the first time, after having finished in the Trifecta in three of his last four races at this class level over the main track.  Breakers Isle could move forward in his second career start.  King Caymus showed nothing in his debut last time out; but as a son of Kitten's Joy, King Caymus deserves at least a few more chances on the turf.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 1 with 7 with 4,5 with 4 $2.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,6,8,9 with 2,6,7 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,8,9 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1 with 3,5 with 4,5 with 4 $2.00
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 1,2,3 with 4 $1.50
$0.50 P4: 1 with 7 with 4,5 with 3,7 $2.00

Total: $67.50

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:14 EDT / 3:14 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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