5/19/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

It's Preakness Day!  And while I'll be wishing the best of luck to Justify in Baltimore, my handicapping time will be spent on the Saturday card in Arcadia, California; specially the final four events, which I'll be analyzing below.  So with that let's get to it, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 9 - (F) [S] The Fran's Valentine $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 6 Moonless Sky (Morning Line 7-2)
# 8 Cordiality (ML 6-1)

B's

# 9 Shy Carmelita (ML 6-1)

C's

# 1 Speakers (ML 12-1)
# 7 Desert Steel (ML 12-1)
# 10 How About Zero (ML 4-1)
# 11 Barbara Beatrice (ML 5-1)

Scratch # 4 Coco Kisses (ML 30-1) and # 5 Lynne's Legacy (ML 15-1)

Moonless Sky, winner of this event via DQ last year, has been training well for this contest and should have plenty of pace to chase.  Cordiality should be forwardly placed early and could have enough tactical speed to hold off the closers late.  Shy Carmelita ran well while winning last time out in her first try on the Santa Anita turf, and Shy Carmelita's form should hold switching from the hill to the flats.

Speakers could be the one running best late.  Desert Steel fits well her on class, though Desert Steel's ability to handle the distance is a concern.  How About Zero and Barbara Beatrice should improve with the return to the turf.

RACE 10 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 12 Nova (ML 4-1)

B's

# 4 Poise to Strike (ML 8-1)

C's

# 1 Perfect Wager (ML 7-2)
# 3 Iron Curtain (ML 8-1)
# 8 North County Guy (ML 4-1)
# 9 Bless His Heart (ML 5-1)
# 11 Cyclolite (ML 30-1)

Nova took the Place against open company last time out.  Poise to Strike showed good early speed in his debut last time out, taking the Show behind a next out winner.  The concern with Poise to Strike is that debut was back in August, and he hasn't raced since.

Perfect Wager drops in for a tag for the first time.  Iron Curtain, returning after an extended layoff, should be forwardly placed.  North County Guy took the Place against open company last time out.  Bless His Heart flashed good early speed in his debut last time out, and has been working well leading up to this contest.  Cyclolite is a first time starter out of Summer Lite, who has produced four winners from four starters.

RACE 11 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 10 Downtowner (ML 3-1)

B’s

# 8 Swayze (ML 5-1)
# 9 Ike Walker (ML 5-2)
# 11 Arch Prince (ML 10-1)

C's

# 1 Sheer Flattery (ML 12-1)

# 2 Magical Mystery (ML 20-1)

# 3 Two Thirty Five (ML 8-1)

# 6 Plum Daddy (ML 15-1)
# 7 Kid Charming (ML 10-1)

Scratch # 4 Spokane Eagle (ML 12-1) and # 5 Super Duper Cooper (ML 15-1)

Downtowner graduated by daylight for Trainer Bob Baffert last time out, and looks well meant here.  Swayze goes second off the layoff for Trainer Phil D'Amato, who tends to do well with such.

Ike Walker has run well in the past at today's distance, and could move up with the class drop.  Arch Prince has shown steady improvement in each of his last three starts.

Sheer Flattery fits well here on class, but seems to settle for too many minor awards.  Magical Mystery is on the ticket because everyone else is.  Two Thirty Five had a nice work over this main track back on the 8th.  Plum Daddy has been working well for his return off the extended layoff.  Kid Charming could move up with the cutback in distance.

RACE 12 - Clm $20k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Broken Up (ML 8-1)

# 12 General Ike (ML 5-1)

B’s

# 2 Trifecta (ML 6-1)

# 3 Crown the Kitten (ML 4-1)

# 8 Secreto Primero (ML 7-2)

C's

None

Scratch # 11 Aventador (FR) (ML 12-1)

Broken Up took the Show against more expensive stock last time out.  General Ike took the Show at this class level last time out, albeit charging down the Santa Anita Hill.

Trifecta was victorious at this class level two starts back.  Crown the Kitten seems to settle for too many minor awards; but Crown the Kitten certainly has the talent to win here today.  Secreto Primero rejoins the barn of Trainer Mike Machowsky, for whom he has run well in the past.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 6,8 with 12 with 10 with 1,12 $4.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 6,8,9 with 4,12 with 8,9,10,11 with 1,2,3,8,12 $60.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 1,7,10,11 with 12 with 10 with 1,12 $4.00

$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 1,3,8,9,11 with 10 with 1,12 $10.00

$0.50 P4: 6,8 with 12 with 1,2,3,6,7 with 1,12 $10.00

Total: $88.00

Post Time for Race 9 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo