Kentucky Derby weekend has finally arrived, as Friday the top three year old fillies will be competing for top honors in Louisville, Kentucky, highlighting a card chock full of stakes. Keep in mind that the below selections are being made with the presumption that the third race in the sequence that I'm discussing, the Grade 3 Edgewood, will remain on the turf. So with that let's get to it, as I take a run at The Pick Four sequence ending with the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs.
RACE 8 - The Alysheba (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 Always Dreaming (Morning Line 3-1)
B's
# 1 Good Samaritan (ML 5-2)
# 4 Backyard Heaven (ML 9-2)
C's
# 5 Hoppertunity (ML 3-1)
# 7 Hawaakom (ML 15-1)
Scratch # 8 Awesome Slew (ML 5-1)
Always Dreaming hasn't been in the Winner's Circle since capturing last year's Kentucky Derby. But I know Always Dreaming can win over this track, and I know he can make two turns; so that's why he's an "A" Selection here.
Good Samaritan could benefit from the cutback in real estate. Backyard Heaven moves up in class and tries two turns for the first time; but Backyard Heaven was much the best in each of his last two races, and this just might be Chad Brown's weekend.
Hoppertunity has hit the board four of the five times that he's competed over this main track. Old age may have finally caught up to Hawaakom; but if the weather turns wetter than projected, Hawaakom just might find that he has one more good race left in the tank.
RACE 9 - (F) OC 75k/N1X - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 6 Devine Mischief (ML 7-2)
B’s
# 2 Electric Forest (ML 3-1)
# 9 Enrage (ML 12-1)
# 10 Sworn Silence (ML 8-1)
C's
# 4 Upset Brewing (ML 9-2)
# 8 She's the Berries (ML 12-1)
Devine Mischief took the Place at this class level while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out. Electric Forest ran well in her debut last time out once she realized that there was a race going on and that she was in it. Enrage fits well here on class, and could move up going second off the layoff.
Sworn Silence took the Show at this class level last time out. Upset Brewing fits well here on class, but seems to settle for too many minor awards. She's the Berries could improve with the return to real dirt and competing for the first time using Lasix.
RACE 10 - (F) The Edgewood (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 11 Rushing Fall (ML 4-5)
B's
# 3 Altea (Fr) (ML 6-1)
C's
# 2 Beyond Blame (ML 20-1)
# 6 Daddy Is a Legend (ML 9-2)
# 7 Toinette (ML 12-1)
# 9 Kabella (ML 30-1)
Scratch # 10 Heavenly Love (ML 20-1)
The most difficult decision I encountered in setting up this play is whether or not to include Altea (Fr) on the main ticket, or to simply use Rushing Fall as a big ticket single. Such is nearly always the case when facing a choice between using one runner or two in a specific leg; as the addition of the second selection doubles the cost of the play, forcing one to answer the question: Is it worth it to spend $X times two rather than just $X to have this horse on the "All A Entries with All B Entries"?
Clearly the undefeated Rushing Fall is the superior horse. But Rushing Fall did not draw well here; indeed, had she drawn better in Saturday's American Turf she'd probably be running there instead. And Altea just may have a better late kick than her stablemate.
Ultimately the decision was one of heart over head. Specifically, I didn't want to place myself in the position of wanting to stab myself in heart should Altea win after I had relegated her to a backup "C" Selection. So onto the main ticket she goes.
Beyond Blame could steal this one on the front end. Daddy Is a Legend, twice defeated by Rushing Fall, lost all chance at the break last time out. Toinette has done nothing wrong in either of her two turf starts. Kabella has twice defeated Beyond Blame; so I can't logically use the one without the other.
RACE 11 - (F) The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 10 Midnight Bisou (ML 5-2)
# 11 My Miss Lily (ML 10-1)
# 14 Monomoy Girl (ML 2-1)
B's
# 1 Sassy Sienna (ML 15-1)
# 5 Wonder Gadot (ML 20-1)
# 7 Rayya (ML 15-1)
C's
# 2 Coach Rocks (ML 12-1)
# 3 Classy Act (ML 15-1)
# 4 Chocolate Martini (ML 12-1)
# 6 Kelly's Humor (ML 30-1)
# 8 Heavenhasmynikki (ML 30-1)
# 9 Take Charge Paula (ML 15-1)
# 12 Patrona Margarita (ML 30-1)
# 13 Eskimo Kisses (ML 15-1)
Boy, did the Grade 3 Fantasy come up slow. Certainly all the speed figure makers seem to believe so, judging by the numbers they've given Sassy Sienna and Wonder Gadot, who were separated at the wire by just a nose in that contest. And the raw time for that eight and a half furlong event was certainly nothing to write home about.
Digging deeper, Wonder Gadot in her two races leading into the Fantasy finished behind Chocolate Martini and Eskimo Kisses in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks, and behind Monomoy Girl and Classy Act in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra.
So what's the case for having these two on the main ticket? Well, I like the way Sassy Sienna and Wonder Gadot drew relative to the top contenders. I like that Sassy Sienna can go from the rail if she has to, or she can use that inside placing to stalk the top speed. I like that Wonder Gadot is one of the few in here to have already covered this amount of real estate; and I like even more that she won for fun in doing so.
Midnight Bisou, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, and Monomoy Girl, winner of the Grade 1 Ashland, are obvious contenders. I think My Miss Lilly, winner of the Grade 2 Gazelle, fits well with both of them; and had My Miss Lilly drawn a better Post Position, it would have been one more reason to keep Sassy Sienna and Wonder Gadot off the main ticket.
Rayya, Kentucky bred but making her first career start outside the UAE, probably isn't as good as the top contenders here, and perhaps should be relegated to a "C" Selection. But ultimately I decided that it was better for my mental health not to lose a Pick Four because I left a Baffert runner in the Kentucky Oaks off the main ticket (Fun Fact - I lost The 2011 Kentucky Oaks Pick Four because I left Plum Pretty off my main ticket. The lessons you remember best are the ones that cost you the most.).
The "C" Selections are everyone else. If somehow, someway, The Almighty allows that I get to this leg of the sequence holding three Aces, I want to be sure that I collect.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3 with 6 with 11 with 10,11,14 $3.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,3,4 with 2,6,9,10 with 3,11 with 1,5,7,10,11,14 $72.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 6 with 11 with 10,11,14 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 4,8 with 11 with 10,11,14 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 2,6,7,9 with 10,11,14 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3 with 6 with 11 with 2,3,4,6,8,9,12,13 $4.00
Total: $91.00
Post Time for Race 8 is 2:53 EDT / 11:53 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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