2018 Kentucky Derby Wrap Up

Just a (relatively) brief observation from examining the chart of the Kentucky Derby: Justify ran very well against the in-race pace bias; the pace shape of the race, if you will.

Notice that Justify was right up on or near the pace throughout the running of the race.  Justify was never further back than second, never more than half a length off the lead, at any of the points of call from out of the gate.

Now compare that to the other runners that were on or close to the lead early.  Or even to those that were just in the front half of the field.  Here are the runners who were first through tenth (the front half of the twenty horse field) at the 3/4 (six furlong) mark, with their final position:

1 - Promises Fulfilled - 15
2 - Justify - 1
3 - Bolt d’Oro - 12
4 - Flameaway - 13
5 - Good Magic - 2
6 - Firenze Fire - 11
7 - Noble Indy - 17
8 - Free Drop Billy - 16
9 - Mendelssohn - 20
10 - Lone Sailor - 8

So of the horses that were in the front half of the field at the six furlong mark, only Justify, Good Magic, and Lone Sailor were still in the front half of the field at the wire.  Or, looking at the data another way, the top ten finishers in the Kentucky Derby at the six furlong mark were (in order):

2nd / 5th / 12th / 17th / 20th / 11th / 15th / 10th / 18th / 19th

In a race where the leaders were fading and the back half of the field was closing, Justify was right up in front early and stayed right up in front right to the end; not backing up; not getting caught.

A very fine effort indeed.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo