5/6/18 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

Back to handicapping sunny Southern California, where the track is Fast and the turf is Firm.  The featured race on the Sunday card in Arcadia is the Grade 3 Adoration, a contest for fillies and mares to be competed over the main track.  I'll be looking at that event below, as I take another run at The Late Pick Four at The Great Race Place.

RACE 6 - (F) [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf

A’s

# 8 Paprika (Morning Line 5-2)

B's

# 1 Charmingslew (ML 7-2)
# 3 Venue (ML 3-1)
# 7 Whata Flirt (ML 15-1)
# 9 Operandi (ML 10-1)

C's

# 6 Sea Sensation (ML 8-1)

Paprika took the Place while disappointing as the Post Time Favorite last time out.  Charmingslew could improve off the freshening.  Venue is a first time starter who has been working well over the main track.

Whata Flirt tries turf for the first time; since her dam has already produced two grass winners, it's fair to presume that Whata Flirt will do well with the surface switch.  Operandi could move up with a return to the hill.  Sea Sensation closed well last time out in her debut on the synthetic main track upstate. 

RACE 7 - (F) The Adoration (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 3 Vale Dori (Arg) (ML 7-5)

B's

None

C's

# 7 Fault (ML 6-5)

Scratch #1 Dalsaros (ML 20-1)

Fault, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Margarita last time out, has done nothing wrong in her two prior 2018 starts, and appears to be in top condition.  But in my opinion Vale Dori (Arg), the defending champ of this event, is clearly better, and Vale Dori's works over this main track in April suggest that she's ready to run.  So Vale Dori gets the "A" spot, Fault gets relegated to the backup "C" spot, and, well, we'll see how that works out.

RACE 8 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf

A’s

# 1 Achira (ML 9-5)

# 4 Speakers (ML 6-1)

B’s

# 2 Battleground State (ML 15-1)
# 3 Spy Ring (Ire) (ML 4-1)

# 6 Helen Hillary (ML 8-1)

# 8 Siberian Iris (Ire) (ML 5-2)

C's

None

Achira has missed victory by just a neck in each of her last two starts at this class level.  Speakers is the only last out winner in this field.  Siberian Iris (Ire) has taken the Place at this class level in each of her last three starts.

Battleground State could move up with the cutback in distance.  Spy Ring (Ire) is getting some much needed class relief.  Helen Hillary is making her 2018 debut for Trainer Phil D'amato, who tends to do well with runners returning from an extended vacation.

RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 2 Jerry's Thunder (ML 5-1)

# 7 Surfside Sunset (ML 5-2)
# 9 Vegas Itch (ML 2-1)

B's

# 3 Duke of Fallbrook (ML 8-1)
# 5 Hidden Crook (ML 15-1)

C's

# 6 Siege of Vicksburg (ML 15-1)

# 8 Red Obsession (ML 8-1)

Jerry's Thunder could improve with the increase in real estate.  Surfside Sunset is being priced to sell, and should move up with the drop in class.  Vegas Itch has taken the Place at this class level in each of his last two starts.

Duke of Fallbook took the Show behind a next out winner at this class level last time out.  Hidden Crook broke well in his debut last time out.

Siege of Vicksburg could move up with the class drop and surface switch.  Red Obsession could move up while covering more ground.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 8 with 3 with 1,4 with 2,7,9 $6.00

All A Entries with All B Entries

$0.50 P4: 1,3,7,8,9 with 3 with 1,2,3,4,6,8 with 2,3,5,7,9 $75.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 6 with 3 with 1,4 with 2,7,9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 7 with 1,4 with 2,7,9 $3.00

$0.50 P4: 8 with 3 with 1,4 with 6,8 $2.00

Total: $89.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:16 EDT / 3:16 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo