The first Saturday in May has arrived, the culmination of all those winter and early spring prep races designed to determine who is the best three year old horse in the land. It's undoubtedly the biggest day of the year in North American horse racing, as even those who have to stop and think about how many legs your average equine runner has will be turning their attention to this contest. So with that let's just get to it, as I take a run at the Pick Four at Churchill Downs that will culminate with The Run For The Roses.
RACE 9 - The American Turf (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Speed Franco (Morning Line 6-1)
# 10 Maraud (ML 6-1)
B's
# 2 Inscom (ML 15-1)
# 3 Threeandfourpence (ML 4-1)
# 6 River Boyne (Ire) (ML 5-1)
C's
# 8 Arawak (ML 20-1)
# 11 Untamed Domain (ML 5-1)
Scratch # 12 Rushing Fall (ML 5-1), Place finisher in yesterday's Edgewood. Also Scratch # 15 Alternative Route (ML 30-1) from the Also Eligible list; but bring in # 16 Tiz Mischief (30-1).
Maraud and Speed Franco filled out the Exacta in the Grade 3 Palm Beach back in March, and it would not surprise were they to do the same today. River Boyne (Ire) and Inscom filled out the Exacta in the Pasadena last time out for both runners. Threeandfourpence should appreciate the return to the turf.
Arawak removes the hood and gets back on the lawn; both moves should help. Untamed Domain is another that looks to improve with the return to grass.
RACE 10 - The Pat Day Mile (Grade 3) - Eight Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Mask (ML 4-1)
B's
# 1 National Flag (ML 4-1)
# 5 Mississippi (ML 10-1)
# 7 Madison's Luna (ML 5-1)
C's
# 10 Seahenge (ML 15-1)
# 11 Sporting Chance (ML 8-1)
# 12 Restoring Hope (ML 9-2)
Mask took a nice step forward while winning the Mucho Macho Man last time out, and has been doing well with his starts spaced out. National Flag was very much the best in the Grade 3 Bay Shore last time out. Mississippi should benefit greatly from the cutback in distance, and has shown good tactical speed in the past. Madison's Luna undefeated in two tries, should hold his form with the added distance.
Seahenge is a wildcard that could be running well late. Sporting Chance should benefit from the reduced real estate, though it is a concern that Sporting Chance doesn't seem to have moved forward from his Hopeful victory last Fall. Restoring Hope is another here that should benefit from cutting back in distance.
RACE 11 - The Turf Classic (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Beach Patrol (ML 5-2)
B's
None
C's
# 1 Deauville (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 3 Kurilov (Chi) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Channel Maker (ML 10-1)
# 7 Synchrony (ML 5-1)
If Beach Patrol is ready to run off the layoff (and runners for Trainer Chad Brown typically are ready to run off a long layoff) then this is a very easy race, as Beach Patrol is very much the best in this field. However, if Beach Patrol is not ready to run off the layoff, then this is a very complicated race, as there are quite a few runners in here who do quite well at the lower class levels, but have not yet shown that they can consistently compete at the Grade 1 level. So here's hoping that when all is said and done this turns out to have been a very easy race.
Deauville (Ire) took the Show behind Beach Patrol last Fall in the Arlington Million. Kurilov (Chi) missed the Winner's Circle by just a neck last time out in his first try over North American turf. Channel Maker has run well each of the last two times that Javier Castellano was on his back. Synchrony could be the one running best late.
RACE 12 - The Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 Audible (ML 8-1)
# 7 Justify (ML 3-1)
# 11 Bolt d'Oro (ML 8-1)
B's
# 6 Good Magic (ML 12-1)
# 14 Mendelssohn (ML 5-1)
# 16 Magnum Moon (ML 6-1)
# 17 Solomini (ML 30-1)
C's
# 1 Firenze Fire (ML 50-1)
# 2 Free Drop Billy (ML 30-1)
# 3 Promises Fulfilled (ML 30-1)
# 4 Flameaway (ML 30-1)
# 8 Lone Sailor (ML 50-1)
# 9 Hofburg (ML 20-1)
# 10 My Boy Jack (ML 30-1)
# 12 Enticed (ML 30-1)
# 13 Bravazo (ML 50-1)
# 15 Instilled Regard (ML 50-1)
# 18 Vino Rosso (ML 12-1)
# 19 Noble Indy (ML 30-1)
# 20 Combatant (ML 50-1)
Scratch # 21 Blended Citizen, who does not draw in off the Also Eligible list
Audible has done nothing but improve in each of his five career starts, culminating in his win in the Florida Derby. Justify may do to this Kentucky Derby field with Bob Baffert trainees have done to the Travers fields each of the past two years; but I suspect that, like Curlin during his Triple Crown season, Justify is a great horse that is not quite there yet. Bolt d'Oro just might prove today that he has been the best all along.
Good Magic looked solid while winning the Blue Grass. Mendelssohn was unquestionably the best last time out in his first try on dirt. Magnum Moon didn't look pretty drifting out while winning the Arkansas Derby, but he should overcome that today. Solomini is the "other" Baffert; and I remind you that 1998 Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet was the "other" Baffert, as the Baffert trained Indian Charlie was the Post Time Favorite in that contest.
The "C" Selections are everyone else. If The Almighty should allow me to enter this final leg holding three Aces, I want to be sure that I collect.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing my tickets in modified Crist fashion, I get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 10 with 5,7,11 $6.00
All A Entries with All B Entries
$0.50 P4: 1,2,3,6,10 with 1,5,7,8 with 10 with 5,6,7,11,14,16,17 $70.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 8,11 with 8 with 10 with 5,7,11 $3.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 10,11,12 with 10 with 5,7,11 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 1,3,5,7 with 5,7,11 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 1,10 with 8 with 10 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10,12,13,15,18,19,20 $13.00
Total: $113.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:37 EDT / 12:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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