RACE 1 - Clm $25k - Eight and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 6 Hurricane Lake (Morning Line (8-5)
C's
# 4 Carlot Cowboy (ML 5-2)
# 1 Dr Action (Arg) (ML 12-1) and # 2 Uncle Dick (ML 5-2) are both competing on a fast dirt track for the first time in their respective careers. Looking at their most recent workouts, I can't see any reason to justify a belief that either of those two is going to take to the dirt today; so if either of those two win, I lose.
# 3 Atascaderan has had some success competing at Los Al, both during the afternoon and the evening. But this is by far the highest class level at which he's ever competed. Maybe Atascaderan can get a big early lead and cross the wire before the others can get going; but I'm betting that doesn't happen today.
Hurricane Lake is the only starter in this field with a Win over this Santa Anita main track. Indeed, Hurricane Lake is the only starter in this field to have finished in the Trifecta over the Santa Anita main track, and he's done it twice in four career starts. Hurricane Lake is a re-claim by Trainer Jeff Bonde, for whom Hurricane Lake recorded his last two victories.
Carlot Cowboy has been popular at the claim box, and took the Place at this level two starts back.
# 5 Perfect Set (ML 7-2) won at today's distance two starts back; but that was over the Del Mar Polytrack and against much, much cheaper competition. Perfect Set did not finish within a dozen lengths of the winner in either of his two prior starts on real dirt; so while his 9/29 workout over this main track was sharp, it's not enough to convince me that Perfect Set can win in this spot.
RACE 2 - MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Desert Dynamo (ML 3-1)
# 3 Stand and Salute (ML 6-1)
# 8 Zendai (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 5 Liberty First (ML 4-1)
# 4 Iancol (ML 4-1) and # 7 Masters Circle (ML 12-1) have been scratched.
Desert Dynamo is a first time starter for Trainer Jeff Bonde, who wins with approximately 20% of such. Desert Dynamo was sired by Desert Party, whose juvenile offspring win approximately 14% of their debut contests. Desert Dyanmo has been showing steady workouts since mid-August, including a pair of bullets over this main track last month.
Stand and Salute disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in his debut, taking the Place in an un-Graded Stakes event upstate back in August. Expect him to improve in his return thanks to the rest he's received since that contest.
Zendai took the Place in his debut at this level, then tried restricted stakes company his last time out, where he led them most of the way before tiring. Zendai should benefit from the turnback in distance.
Liberty First is a first time starter from Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Liberty First was sired by Pulpit, whose juvenile progeny win approximately 13% of the time at first asking. The concern I have is with the gap between the 9/13 and 9/24 workouts. Perhaps it's a minor thing that should be overlooked; but this is a rather tough field for two year old maidens, and it looks like it's going to take a peak effort by one of these to win.
RACE 3 - Alw 40000s N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 2 I'm Popeye (ML 4-1)
# 6 Top Drawer (ML 6-5)
C's
# 1 Cloudy River (ML 4-1)
# 5 One More Roll (ML 4-1)
If one of these juveniles figures out how to rate today, they are going to have a huge advantage over the rest of this field. I'm Popeye may already have that ability; since he won his only prior race, he's the only runner in this field to have not lost because he didn't make the early lead. I'm Popeye is trained by Robertino Diodoro, who does quite well with placing his chargers that win their last time out, getting repeat winners approximately 28% of the time with such. A concern is the gap between the 9/14 and 9/28 workout; but otherwise I'm Popeye looks to improve off his debut effort.
Top Drawer has the best last-out Beyer Speed Figure in this field by a bunch, a number earned while taking the Show in the same restricted stakes event in which Zendai finished fourth. So while it won't help you when putting together a Pick Five or Pick Four play, perhaps you can gain some insight as to how Top Drawer will run here by how Zendai does in Race 2.
Cloudy River's lone Win came via DQ; but he did gain ground on the leader in his debut, so perhaps he can win off the pace today. One More Roll could be the speed of the speed here; if none of these rate, then One More Roll looks like the most likely to lead them gate to wire.
RACE 4 - Clm $50k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Polytechnicien (ML 3-1)
# 7 Press Baron (GB) (ML 2-1)
C's
# 4 Stoney Fleece (ML 4-1)
# 6 Compari (ML 3-1)
Polytechnicien won upstate his last time out; and though that victory came against much cheaper, it could be a signal that Polytechnicien is returning to the form that he showed earlier this year, when he defeated $75k claimers over this turf course.
Stoney Fleece finished in the money each of his last two time out, both against more expensive stock. Press Baron (GB) donned the blinkers last time out and took a Starter Allowance at Del Mar. Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who was aboard for that win, will be in the saddle again today.
Compari is obviously past his prime; but he has six Wins in his nine career starts over the Santa Anita grass, and such an obvious horse for the course must be respected, regardless of age.
RACE 5 - MSW - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 5 He's a Bling (ML 3-1)
# 7 Well Lawyered (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Majestic Charlie (ML 6-1)
# 4 Alfa Bird (ML 5-2)
He's a Bling has missed graduating by less than a length in each of his last three starts. Perhaps the rider switch to Mike Smith will give him that little extra that he needs to get past the wire first.
Well Lawyered makes his first start of 2014; Trainer Simon Callaghan wins with approximately 23% of those coming back from an extended leave of greater than six months. Well Lawyered has the best last out Beyer Speed Figure, a number earned over this main track over today's distance. While away Well Lawyered underwent the ultimate equipment change, and will be making his first start today as a gelding.
Majestic Charlie is a first time starter for Trainer John Sadler, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Majestic Charlie was sired by Indian Charlie, whose progeny win approximately 16% of their debuts. Majestic Charlie also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field.
Alfa Bird took the Place in his debut at this level last time out. If they ran these races in the morning rather than in the afternoon Alfa Bird would be a cinch; note the two bullet workouts over the Santa Anita main track, as well as the bullet work over at Del Mar prior to his debut there. There's a good chance that I may regret making Alfa Bird a "C" Selection rather than an "A"; but Alfa Bird is trained by Victor Garcia, whose runners normally don't advance in their second career starts.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 4 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 5 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 5,7 $4.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 1,5 with 2,7 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 4,6 with 5,7 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 6 with 1,3,8 with 2,6 with 2,7 with 1,4 $12.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 4:00 EDT / 1:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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