RACE 7 - [R] (F) The Swingtime $75k - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 2 Heat Du Jour (Morning Line 9-2)
# 7 Kathleen Rose (ML 5-2)
# 8 Theatre Star (ML 7-2)
C's
# 5 Premier Steps (Ire) (ML 5-1)
It'll be worth remembering when you see this contest in future Past Performance running lines that this is not an open event, but is restricted to fillies and mares that have not won a stakes of $60k at one mile or over, other than state bred, in 2014.
Heat Du Jour was impressive winning the Solana Beach at Del Mar two starts back, after being claimed for $32k back in May. Expect Heat Du Jour to sit back early and take one run at the leaders in the stretch. Meanwhile, expect Kathleen Rose to try to lead the field all the way around the track, much as she did her last time competing on this turf course in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine, which she just missed winning by a neck.
Theatre Star demonstrated a newfound ability to close from well off the pace in her last start; perhaps that trait will prove useful today if someone can keep the pressure on Kathleen Rose early. The bullet work on 9/27 suggests that Theatre Star will be moving quick once she does get into gear.
The last time Premier Steps (Ire) ran at today's distance over this turf course was in the Grade 3 Wilshire, in which she was able to take the Show.
RACE 8 - The Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Grade 1) - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Secret Circle (ML 7-5)
# 3 Goldencents (ML 8-5)
C’s
None
Goldencents won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile here last year; the next day Secret Circle won the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint. Do you know which of these horses is going to win today? If you do, good for you; because I haven't got a clue, so I'm using them both.
RACE 9 - The City of Hope Mile (Grade 2) - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 2 Mr. Commons (ML 4-1)
# 4 Big Bane Theory (ML 9-2)
# 12 Rock Me Baby (ML 6-1)
C’s
# 6 Trend (ML 15-1)
#10 Pepper Crown (ML 12-1)
Mr. Commons hasn't been able to find the Winner's Circle in his past dozen races. Despite that, Mr. Commons is a top earner on grass, so he should be competitive against this field; and his five finishes in the Exacta in his eight career tries on this turf course suggests that we may see a top performance from Mr. Commons today.
Big Bane Theory is three-for-five in his career on the Santa Anita grass. Rock Me Baby missed by a length of winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile two starts back.
Trend ships back in from upstate after winning a listed stakes two starts back.
Pepper Crown enters this event with a two race winning streak. Back in April, Pepper Crown won the San Francisco Mile. All that, however, was at Golden Gate. This will be Pepper Crown's first start at Santa Anita, so it remains to be seen how he'll handle the surface.
RACE 10 - Clm $12.5k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A's
# 1 Pressure Time (ML 9-2)
# 5 Clubhouse Rock (ML 6-1)
# 10 Tancred (ML 30-1)
# 14 Malibu Colony (ML 6-1)
C's
# 3 Small Town Cop (ML 5-1)
# 13 Pillar of Strength (ML 8-1)
Pressure Time is one of several here dropping in class after a claim. Pressure Time just missed winning his only prior start on a fast dirt track by a neck.
Clubhouse Rock missed by just a head at this level over this main track two starts back. I think it's fair to say that Clubhouse Rock did not take to the Del Mar Polytrack last time out.
Tancred may be another that just didn't like the Del Mar Polytrack. Trancred's efforts on the the dirt, both here and at Santa Rosa, against more expensive stock, would certainly put him in the mix if repeated today.
Malibu Colony's only Win came in his only race over this main track, which was also at today's distance.
Small Town Cop won at first asking last time out, and was claimed for $20k. While this class level fits for a horse trying winners for the first time after defeating $20k maidens, the recognition by the new connections that this horse is not worth what they just paid for it suggests that it may have issues not yet publicly revealed.
Pillar of Strength also drops in class immediately off the claim; this after leaving the gate as the Post Time Favorite against more expensive stock last time out. This is the cheapest price tag Pillar of Strength has ever been run for in his career.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to playing our tickets via the Crist method, as usual, but with a twist: the "All A Entries" ticket will also be for the minimum fifty cents. I decided that I'd rather use the additional funds normal used to price protect our top selections to spread wider than our budget would normally allow in the finale. I can't say for certain that this is the best strategy; but based upon the large fields and the wide open nature of the last two legs of the sequence, it seems like the way to go. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,3 with 2,4,12 with 1,5,10,14 $36.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5 with 1,3 with 2,4,12 with 1,5,10,14 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,3 with 6,10 with 1,5,10,14 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7,8 with 1,3 with 2,4,12 with 3,13 $18.00
Total: $90.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 7:16 EDT / 4:16 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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