The Late Pick Four at Santa Anita has a pair of races charging down the hill, including a stakes event. There's also a pair of maiden contests, one of which looks like a race that nobody will win. I strongly suspect this play is going to go over budget; but we'll see.
RACE 6 - The Uniformity $75k - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A's
# 2 Forever Juanito (Morning Line 8-1)
# 7 Red Outlaw (ML 9-5)
C's
# 3 Daraybi (ML 7-2)
# 5 Street Icon (ML 3-1)
Red Outlaw has won all five of his prior career starts, including an ungraded stakes win charging down the hill in February. Forever Juanito is also a stakes winner charging down the hill.
Daraybi (Fr) is a stakes winner in Europe. Daraybi occasionally flashed early speed while racing in France; such type often do well in North America. Street Icon won an OC 80k/N1X charging down the hill in January; but that was for a different barn, and with a different jockey.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 Windy Forecast (ML 5-2)
# 8 Suva Harbor (ML 4-1)
# 9 Girl Downstairs (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Lilies and Roses (ML 6-1)
# 3 Lady Dedlock (ML 12-1)
# 7 La Mexicana (ML 50-1) has been scratched.
Windy Forecast took the Place at this level in her debut two starts back, and then tried Grade 1 company with significantly poorer results.
Suva Harbor and Girl Downstairs are both making their second career starts for trainers (David Hofmans and Bob Baffert, respectively) who do quite well with such. Both runners performed well in their respective debuts, finishing within two lengths of the winner at this class level.
Lilies and Roses is a first time starter sired by Super Saver, whose progeny win approximately 12.5% of their debuts. Lilies and Roses had a sharp workout over this track on the 15th, and the presence of Elvis Trujillo in the saddle suggests that she may be ready to roll.
Lady Dedlock is a first time starter for Trainer Peter Miller, who wins with approximately 19% of such. Lady Dedlock also has the best Tomlinson Rating in this field for today's distance.
RACE 8 - [S] OC 20k/C - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 2 Gangnam Guy (ML 4-1)
# 3 Law Dog (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 8 Lucky Views (ML 6-1)
# 1 El Tovar (ML 4-1) has been scratched.
As I did for yesterday's Race 8, I've quoted the race type above as it's given in the DRF Past Performances; but, again, reading the conditions, it's pretty clear that it's an N1X or you're in for the tag.
Gangnam Guy just missed by a head of being a stakes winner charging down the hill. Gangnam Guy has taken the Place in both of his turf sprints on this course.
Law Dog gets some class relief in his first try on this turf course. He also gets Rafael Bejarano on his back, which is certainly not a negative.
Lucky Views, like Gangnam Guy, is trained by Michael Machowsky. Lucky Views has finished in the Trifecta in two of his three starts on this turf course. Lucky Views demonstrated the ability to gain on the leaders late in his last start; that's a trait that may serve him well in this contest.
RACE 9 - (F) Md $20k - Six Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Jo's Approval (ML 9-2)
# 2 Turn On (ML 4-1)
# 7 Push Girl (ML 8-5)
# 8 Southern Owah (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 3 Pink Laces (ML 30-1)
# 4 She'smorethanalady (ML 6-1)
# 6 Miners Lass (ML 12-1)
# 5 Groovy Journey (ML 10-1) has been scratched.
Jo's Approval had her best race two starts back in her only prior start with Mario Gutierrez on her back. Only one opponent in this field has a better career Beyer Speed Figure than the one Jo's Approval earned in that race.
Turn On had two sharp workouts prior to her last start; so how did the public react? They sent her off at over 50-1. And, to her credit, Turn On ran like a horse that deserved to go off at over 50-1. Anyway, this is her first time in for a tag; perhaps this afternoon she'll run like she did on those two mornings.
Push Girl was able to make the early lead against more expensive in her debut last time out. Today she'll run without blinkers; perhaps that'll help her save something for the stretch.
Southern Owah finished ninth in a field of ten in her debut at this level last time out; and, believe it or not, she earned in that effort the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in this field.
The "C's" are everyone else. While I'm not convinced, I feel confident that one of these seven horses will win this race. Probably.
OK, that's the analysis; and, yeah, we're over budget. I don't have the confidence to single Red Outlaw in Race 6 because I don't think much of the level of competition that he's beaten so far. I don't want to drop the first time starters in Race 7 because none of the experienced runners have come all that close to earning a speed figure within par for the class. And the finale is pure chaos; I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button for that one. But, this is the way I see it. We'll be playing our tickets as usual using the Crist method, but without doubling down on the "All A Entries" wager. So with that, we get:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 3,5 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 2,3 with 2,3 with 1,2,7,8 $16.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 8 with 1,2,7,8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 2,7 with 4,8,9 with 2,3 with 3,4,6 $18.00
Total: $94.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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