Sunday, October 5, 2014

10/5/14 Santa Anita Late Pick Four - Preview

"You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space." - Johnny Cash

Juveniles dominate the latter races at Santa Anita today, as three of the four legs of the Late Pick Four (including both stakes) are for two year olds; so it should be a competitive sequence.  Let's get to it.

RACE 6 - The Zuma Beach $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 4 Luck of the Kitten (Morning Line 3-1)
# 6 Dallas Skyline (ML 5-2)

C's

# 2 Highway Boss (ML 8-1)

Luck of the Kitten is yet another of the Kitten Joy brood, and we all know that those cats are tough to beat on the grass.  Luck of the Kitten has been in the Exacta in all three of his career starts.

Dallas Skyline came from off the pace to win his turf debut, then tried to run on the lead in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes and gradually faded.  Mike Smith gets the mount today.

Highway Boss closed well last time out in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf, his first try on the grass.  Highway Boss was a stakes winner on dirt back in July in a state bred only event.

RACE 7 - (F) OC 40k/N1X - Six Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 1 Sweet Marini (ML 3-1)
# 5 Rovenna (ML 7-2)

C’s

# 11 Winning Vision (ML 15-1)

Not sure why, but my copy of Brisnet Past Performances lists this one as an N2X.  Curious if other PPs out there have the same error.

Sweet Marini won the state bred only Fleet Treat Stakes this Summer, took the Show in the Grade 3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap, and took the Place last time out at today's class level.  However, all three of those contests were run over the Del Mar Polytrack; so we'll have to wait and see if that form carries over to real dirt today.

Rovenna won a pair of state bred only stakes over this main track earlier this year.  Rovenna is four-for-five in her career when competing over a fast dirt track, including three-for-four on the Santa Anita dirt.

Winning Vision had the lead in the stretch last time out at this class level before settling for the Place.  It'll be interesting to see if Jockey Kayla Stra can get Winning Vision to break clean without bumping her neighbors.

RACE 8 - (F) The Surfer Girl $100k - Eight Furlongs Turf

A's

# 3 Sea Mona (ML 6-1)
# 6 She's Complete (Ire) (ML 3-1)
# 11 Bobbi Grace (Ire) (ML 6-1)

C's

# 2 Devil's Beauty (ML 30-1)
# 5 Her Emmynency (ML 5-2)

She's Complete (Ire) and Sea Mona ran one-two in the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes their last time out on the track.  Bobbi Grace (Ire) covered the course in good time while breaking her maiden last time out in her native Ireland.

Devil's Beauty won her debut easily (albeit for a tag) and should improve competing on some California grass.  Her Emmynency just missed winning the Grade 2 Del Mar Debutante; but that was on the Polytrack, and I'm not convinced that Her Emmynency will hold her form in this, her turf debut.

RACE 9 - [S] MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Dirt

A’s

# 8 Hot Lightening (ML 5-1)
# 10 Guy Code (ML 15-1)
# 12 Flexible (ML 2-1)

C’s

# 1 Desert Express (ML 20-1)
# 13 General Dixie (ML 30-1)

Hot Lightening showed good early speed in her debut, and her trainer (Simon Callaghan) gets approximately 20% Winners from runners making their second career start.

Guy Code took the Show at this level last time out.  Flexible took the Place at this level (in his debut) last time out.

Desert Express is a first time starter by Desert Party, who was a Graded Stakes winner at two.  General Dixie is trained by Mike Puype, whose runners Win approximately 18% of their second career starts.

OK, that's the analysis.  Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:

All A Entries

$1.00 P4: 4,6 with 1,5 with 3,6,11 with 8,10,12 $36.00

A's with One C

$0.50 P4: 2 with 1,5 with 3,6,11 with 8,10,12 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 11 with 3,6,11 with 8,10,12 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,5 with 2,5 with 8,10,12 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 4,6 with 1,5 with 3,6,11 with 1,13 $12.00

Total: $78.00

Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT.  Good luck to all.

Peace and Love,

Jimbo

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