RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 3 Vow Me Over (Morning Line 3-1)
# 4 Educating (ML 7-2)
# 8 Satin Cinnamon (ML 6-1)
C’s
None
# 12 Madam Aamoura (Morning Line 2-1) did not draw in. If she had, she would have been the only runner in the field to have previously finished in the money competing on turf.
Vow Me Over took the Show at today's distance at this class level last time out, when competing over the Del Mar Polytrack. Educating makes her second career start for Trainer Tom Proctor, who wins with approximately 23% of such. Satin Cinnamon is sired by Pioneerof the Nile, whose progeny win approximately 21% of their turf debuts.
RACE 7 - MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Where's the Moon (ML 12-1)
# 3 Believe Too (ML 5-1)
# 6 Kantune (ML 4-1)
# 7 Unblunted (ML 6-1)
# 9 Fame and Power (ML 4-1)
# 10 Cyrus Alexander (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Believe Too, Kantune, Unblunted, and Fame and Power have all taken the Place at least once at this class level. If I were to play the Win Pool I would give strong consideration to Kantune and/or Unblunted, as both have demonstrated in their brief careers the ability to close on the leader from off the pace; a trait not often found among juveniles.
Where's the Moon and Cyrus Alexander are first time starters conditioned by trainers (Peter Miller and Jerry Hollendorfer, respectively) who win quite often with such. In addition, neither Where's the Moon nor Cyrus Alexander show significant gaps in their respective workout pattern. First time starters are generally not a good play when there are several experienced runners who have already finished in the money at this class level; however, the fact that none of the experienced runners in this field has come close to earning a speed figure at par for this level on a fast dirt track suggests that a debut runner could win this contest.
RACE 8 - [S](F) OC 20k/C - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 4 Chilada (ML 4-1)
# 5 Tangelo (ML 7-2)
C’s
None
I've quoted the race type above as it's given in the DRF Past Performances. The Brisnet PPs have it as [S](F) OC 20k/b; but, really, if you look at the conditions, it's an N1X or you're in for the tag.
Tangelo and Chilada finished third and fourth (respectively) in the same contest last time out against $80k Optional Claiming company that wasn't restricted to state breds. Both were less than a length away from the winner, Royal Temptress, at the wire.
# 7 Toppers Sunshine (ML 12-1), # 10 Marina Del Heat (ML 10-1), and # 11 Boller Bomb (ML 4-1) all exit the same $25k open claimer. They are also the only three entrants in this race with a Win over this turf course. Normally these three would be regarded as top contenders under these race conditions; however, it's my opinion that Tangelo and Chilada have too great a class edge over the rest of this field to justify using any others as contenders.
RACE 9 - [S] Md $50k - Five and a Half Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 1 Condition (ML 6-1)
# 7 Sindys Luck (ML 4-1)
# 8 Roper (ML 3-1)
# 11 Sonic Fever (ML 4-1)
C’s
None
In his last start, the second of his career, Condition dropped in class from open company into the state bred ranks but failed to show improvement. However, Condition was up on the pace in that last contest, and today he adds blinkers; so he'll be speed on the rail, which must be respected.
Roper just missed graduation by a nose back in July. He then took a two and a half month vacation from competition, and failed miserably as the Post Time Favorite in his return to action. If Roper can return to the form that he showed in July he'll win easily; but if his connections thought that he could return to that July form, they probably wouldn't be dropping him in for a tag.
Sonic Fever took the Place at this class level in his debut last time out, and had a sharp workout over this main track on the 12th.
Sindys Luck is a first time starter sired by Lucky Pulpit, whose progeny win approximately 14.5% of their debuts. Sindys Luck is trained by Jeff Mullins, who wins approximately 29% of the time that he sends a first time starter out in a Maiden Claiming event. I don't like the gap between Sindys Luck's workouts from mid-August to mid-September; and I don't like that Trainer Mullins has only a .06 Winning Percentage with two year olds; but I don't see a clear standout in this field, so on that basis I'll be including Sindys Luck on my ticket.
Oh, yes, that's not a typo above: ticket in the singular is what I'll be playing today. You'll notice that I've slotted all contenders in the "A" slots above. I think these contests are competitive enough that there's little to be gained by separating the contenders into "A's" and "C's"; therefore, we'll be playing just the one caveman style ticket:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 3,4,8 with 1,3,6,7,9,10 with 4,5 with 1,7,8,11 $72.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:44 EDT / 3:44 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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