RACE 6 - (F) MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Downhill Turf
A’s
# 3 See Through (Morning Line 5-2)
# 7 Tap Dancing (Ire) (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 2 Temeeku (ML 9-2)
# 8 Williams Bay (ML 9-2)
See Through has finished in the money in all three of her career starts, including two prior attempts at charging down the hill. Tap Dancing (Ire) makes her North American debut having previously finished in the money in four of her five grass starts in her native Ireland.
Temeeku is by Unusual Heat, while Williams Bay is by Kitten's Joy; so both have enough turf breeding to suggest that they should eventually be enjoying success on the grass.
RACE 7 - (F) MSW - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 3 So You Say (ML 8-1)
# 7 One Gun (ML 7-2)
# 9 Fateer (ML 8-1)
# 11 Scandal (ML 9-2)
C’s
# 1 She's a Big Winner (ML 12-1)
# 5 Miss Centerfold (ML 6-1)
If there was one race in this sequence where I wish I could just hit the "ALL" button, this would be it. None of the experienced runners have come close to the speed figure par for this class level in any of their starts, while each of the debut runners seems to have significant flaws. This one has the potential in my opinion to be a real chaos race.
So You Say and Fateer, both trained by Bob Baffert, both finished in the money at this level their respective last time out. Indeed, So You Say has taken the Show at this level in each of her career starts. Fateer has been having problems breaking from the gate, something that you just don't normally see in Baffert-trained runners.
One Gun makes her second career start and adds blinkers for Trainer Simon Callaghan, who does reasonably well in the former category (approximately .15 Winning Percentage, with a positive ROI) and unreasonably poorly in the latter category (zero-for-his last nineteen when adding the hood).
Scandal is a first time starter for Trainer Richard Mandella, who wins with approximately 11% of such. Scandal was sired by Blame, whose progeny have been winning approximately 17% of their debuts.
She's a Big Winner is a first time starter who has been working well over this main track. She's a Big Winner also has the best Tomlinson Rating for today's distance in this field. However, it should be noted that She's a Big Winner's conditioner, Peter Eurton, sees his debut runners win only approximately 5% of their attempts.
Miss Centerfold is a first time starter trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who wins with approximately 31% of such. However, the offspring of Miss Centerfold's sire, Tiznow, win only approximately 7% of their debut efforts. In addition, Miss Centerfold's workouts have been, shall we say, unhurried.
RACE 8 - OC 40k/N1X - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Husband's Folly (ML 3-1)
# 4 Play Hard to Get (ML 4-1)
# 6 Christopher Street (ML 5-1)
C’s
# 2 Mr Lexis (ML 9-2)
Husband's Folly misses by two noses and a neck of coming into this contest having won four of his last six. Husband's Folly is two-for-four in his career at today's distance, and will get a rider switch today to Rafael Bejarano.
Play Hard to Get faces winners for the first time today; yet despite that fact, Play Hard to Get has been one of the better money makers on grass in this field, with career earning per turf start better than most here. Also note that Play Hard to Get's graduation came at the same distance that they'll be running today.
Christopher Street will be dialing it back in distance today, after having taken the lead and then losing it in the stretch last time out at eleven furlongs. Christopher Street is a lifetime two-for-six on this turf course, making him just one of two in this field with multiple wins on the Santa Anita grass (Husband's Folly is the other).
Mr Lexis has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures since coming north from Peru; but he's yet to find the Winner's Circle in North America.
# 3 Ice Cream Truck (ML 7-2) took the Show two starts back in the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap; but that was on Polytrack. Ice Cream Truck's best shot here would seem to be to get to the lead early, and then smoke the grass before the others can get into gear.
RACE 9 - Md $20k - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Militant (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 1 Salt of the Earth (ML 8-1)
# 5 Barbara's Passion (ML 10-1)
# 10 Matzoh Ball Magic (ML 4-1)
# 4 The Twelfth Man (ML 5-2) has been scratched
Militant takes a step down the class ladder and gains the services of Jockey Rafael Bejarano.
Salt of the Earth looks to see if the thirteenth time will be the charm; normally not a good angle. But only two of Salt of the Earth's prior starts were at today's distance, and he took the Place in both of them.
Barbara's Passion makes his first start with a price tag on his head, as well as making his first start on dirt. Matzoh Ball Magic has earned steadily increasing Beyer Speed Figures since adding blinkers, and moves down to a lower class level.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,7 with 3,7,9,11 with 1,4,6 with 8 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 2,8 with 3,7,9,11 with 1,4,6 with 8 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 1,5 with 1,4,6 with 8 $6.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 3,7,9,11 with 2 with 8 $4.00
$0.50 P4: 3,7 with 3,7,9,11 with 1,4,6 with 1,5,10 $36.00
Total: $82.00
Post Time for Race 6 is 6:30 EDT / 3:30 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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