RACE 7 - OC 40k/N1X - Eight and a Half Furlongs Synthetics
A’s
# 3 Yard Line (Morning Line 7-2)
# 6 Big Tire (ML 3-1)
C’s
# 5 Big Sunshine (ML 4-1)
# 7 Southern Freedom (ML 6-1)
Yard Line sure didn't like the turf last time out; today we'll see how much he likes the synthetic stuff. A repeat of his effort two starts back should get Yard Line the Win today.
Big Tire took the Show at this level over this main track last time out, after dropping down from Graded Stakes company. There's certainly class here, and Big Tire's off the pace running style could prove decisive in a field with more than its fair share of front runners.
Sweet Sunshine returns from a nine month vacation, though he has been working well over this main track. Sweet Sunshine has finished in the Exacta both times that he's competed around two turns. This will be Sweet Sunshine's first try against winners.
Southern Freedom has four career races, all of which have been run over this main track; and he's finished in the Trifecta in each of them. Southern Freedom will be competing against winners for the first time; but he's the only one in this field with a win over this track, and the tandem of Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and Jockey Mike Smith must be respected.
RACE 8 - (F) The Del Mar Oaks (Grade 1) - Nine Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 10 Sea Queen (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Famous Alice (ML 12-1)
# 4 Personal Diary (ML 8-1)
# 3 Istanford (ML 5-1) won Friday's Sandy Blue Handicap here, and therefore has been scratched from today's contest. The scratch of Istanford leaves this field devoid of any horse that has a Win on this turf course. # 9 Maibaby (Ire) (ML 15-1) has also been scratched.
Sea Queen invades from the East, where she’s been doing just fine, finishing in the Exacta in all but one of her six career starts. Sea Queen can lead the field around the track or she can sit off the pace; with Istanford and Maibaby (Ire) scratched Sea Queen may lead the pack in the early going by default; though Famous Alice may choose to contest the early lead. Sea Queen is the Morning Line Favorite, and I expect her to go to Post at odds well below 2-1.
Famous Alice could benefit from the absence of Istanford, as a softer early pace could allow this daughter of Kitten's Joy to sit close and pounce at just the right moment. Note that the only time that Famous Alice has finished out of the Exacta on the grass was when the turf was less than firm.
Personal Diary would probably have been better served with Istanford in the field, as Personal Diary does her best running late, and a blistering early pace would certainly help her cause. Still, Personal Diary's chances must be respected, as she was able to cross the wire third (placed second due to DQ) in the Grade 3 Regret, just behind Aurelia's Belle, who would go on to win the Grade 3 Arlington Oaks.
# 1 Diversy Harbor (ML 9-2) and # 6 My Conquestadory (ML 5-1) are a pair that showed great promise when they began their young careers, but have not developed as hoped. While both have the back class and breeding to contend in this spot, the only way either can win here would be to take a big step forward off their most recent efforts. Perhaps one or both of them will; but I'll be betting against that today.
# 7 Tepin (ML 12-1) is a Graded Stakes winner on dirt making her third career start on turf; and, quite frankly, I think she should keep off the grass. Yes, she did take the Place behind Istanford in the Grade 2 San Clemente on this course last month; but that was back when they had the grass shaved so close that it looked like a billiard table. Just my opinion, of course, but the connections of Tepin would do much better by this horse to move her back to competing on dirt.
RACE 9 - (F) Clm $16k N2L - Six Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Moscato Girl (ML 6-1)
# 4 Golden Celestial (ML 12-1)
# 6 Adriatic Skye (ML 6-1)
# 8 Bird In Love (GB) (ML 8-1)
C's
# 3 Hollywood Producer (ML 20-1)
# 7 Brandon's Princess (ML 8-1)
# 12 Lakota Road (ML 9-2)
Moscato Girl took the Place against more expensive over this main track two starts back. This is the cheapest tag that Moscato Girl has run for in her career.
Hollywood Producer, Golden Celestial, and Adriatic Style all exit the same last race, which saw Hollywood Producer and Adriatic Skye fight on the lead with the eventual winner (Tim's Go Girl) while Golden Celestial swooped in late to take the Place. Adriatic Skye gets the edge today in my opinion due to the switch back to Trainer Vann Belvoir, who re-claimed her from the last event after having lost her in her prior contest. In addition Adriatic Skye shows a bullet work over this main track on August 12, which means that she's ready to fire again. Should Adriatic Skye not fire, Hollywood Producer could be the one leading the pack around the track; while if things get frantic again, Golden Celestial could be the only horse still running at the finish.
Bird in Love (GB) is the only runner in this field with a Win over this main track, and she enters this contest with the best last out Beyer (also earned over this main track).
Brandon's Princess took the Show at this class level her last time out. Brandon's Princess has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in each of her last three starts; but in a field without a standout, it's not hard to imagine her winning while the rest of the field backs away from the Finish Line.
Lakota Road runs for a tag for the first time since her debut after posting her lowest career Beyer Speed Figure since her debut. The public work on August 9 doesn't inspire confidence, other than that is it a public work, so she can't be too off form. Anyway, if Lakota Road can run back to any of the Beyers that she was earning earlier this year, she'll win this one by daylight; but it's far more likely that she doesn't.
# 5 Coconut Cream Pie (ML 7-2) experienced a noticeable drop in her Beyer Speed Figures in her last contest compared to those from her prior two starts. Perhaps not so coincidentally, Coconut Cream Pie was also sporting front leg wraps for the first time in her career in her last race. Since Coconut Cream Pie shows no public works since that last contest, it's easy to presume that she is not in her top form. In addition, Coconut Cream Pie earned her lowest career Beyer in her only prior race on the Del Mar main track. Therefore, Coconut Cream Pie, despite being the Morning Line Favorite, will not be on any on my tickets today; so if she wins, I lose.
A’s
# 4 True Visionary (ML 4-1)
# 8 Zim N the Mailman (ML 15-1)
# 9 Classified Weapon (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 10 Silent Ruler (ML 5-1)
# 12 Well Insulated (ML 10-1)
True Visionary and Classified Weapon are among several here making the big drop from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claiming. True Visionary adds blinkers for Trainer Mike Puype, who gets approximately 23% winners from such. In addition True Visionary shows a fine work over this track on August 3, so he should handle the surface switch okay. Meanwhile, Classified Weapon posted a bullet work here on August 2, so he should be ready to fire as well.
Zim N the Mailman had been running against state bred company, so this move isn't much of a drop. But Trainer Tim Yakteen wins more than his fair share of Maiden Claiming events, as well as contests on synthetic surfaces. The rider switch to Fernando Hernandez Perez, who has been having a fine meet, adds to the appeal.
Silent Ruler is the Desormeaux Brothers entry. Trainer Keith and Jockey Kent have been doing well this meet, so their entry must be respected, though it is worth noting that Silent Ruler has had his chances against claiming competition.
Well Insulated, another making the big drop, goes for Trainer Eric Kruljac, who wins with approximately 22% of such. Well Insulated had a fine work hear on August 8, and the experience competing on the synthetic upstate at Golden Gate should be a plus.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P4: 5,7 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $12.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 2,4 with 2,4,6,8 with 4,8,9 $24.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 3,7,12 with 4,8,9 $9.00
$0.50 P4: 3,6 with 10 with 2,4,6,8 with 10,12 $8.00
Total: $77.00
Post Time for Race 7 is 8:00 EDT / 5:00 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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