It's Travers Day at the Spa, the annual highlight of the Saratoga meet; and NYRA has gifted us with a card that includes an all Graded Stakes Pick Four, Races 9-12 (inclusive).
RACE 9 - (F) The Ballston Spa (Grade 2) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Mellon Turf Course
A’s
# 7 Filimbi (Morning Line 2-1)
C’s
# 3 Abaco (ML 4-1)
# 4 Strathnaver (GB) (ML 6-1)
# 5 Dayatthespa (ML 5-2) has been scratched. Also note that this race has been moved from the inner to the outer turf.
Filimbi has done nothing wrong since arriving in North America from France. A repeat of her last out effort in the De La Rose Stakes should get the job done here.
Abaco closed well in both the Grade 1 Diana and the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley; and while the projected pace in this one doesn't flatter her, she should appreciate the class relief. I also like her most recent works here. Strathnaver (GB) should improve over her most recent outing in the Diana and run closer to her effort in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes, where she lost the photo to Coffee Clique.
RACE 10 - The King's Bishop (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 8 Coup de Grace (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 4 Noble Cornerstone (ML 15-1)
# 7 The Big Beast (ML 5-2)
Coup de Grace looked very good in winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam over this track last time out, and has been working well since. The Big Beast took a big step forward last time out in his first try against winners. Have to respect his chances due to his speed figures and his connections; but I don't think The Big Beast can get the early lead today, and that certainly compromises his chances.
Noble Cornerstone is making a big leap up the class ladder, entering this field off efforts in state-bred allowance company; but it's not as if he's come out of nowhere, as Noble Cornerstone did show this potential as a two year old. Noble Cornerstone's speed figures mark him as a contender here, and while this is a Grade 1 stakes, it's a Grade 1 that lacks a prior Grade 1 winner.
RACE 11 - (F) The Ballerina (Grade 1) - Seven Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 4 My Miss Aurelia (ML 3-1)
# 5 Willet (ML 6-1)
# 6 La Verdad (ML 7-2)
C’s
# 1 Artemis Agrotera (ML 5-1)
# 2 Better Lucky (ML 4-1)
# 3 Kipling's Joy (ML 30-1)
# 8 Hot Stones (ML 6-1)
# 9 Geeky Gorgeous (ML 20-1)
My Miss Aurelia is certainly the class of this field. The question is has she come back from her injuries that limited her to just one race in all of 2013 and just two races over the past year and a half? If you go back to her 2012 campaign, you'll see that she used an effort in a restricted stakes similar to her most recent performance as a springboard to a Grade 1 Win and the Place in the Breeders' Cup Distaff / Ladies Classic. Certainly a return to that form gets the job done here today.
Willet enters this event with the best last out Beyer Speed Figure. The question here is can Willet carry her form from state bred contests into Graded Stakes company. Willet certainly fits here on speed figures and she definitely likes this track, having finished in the Exacta in all five of her races here at Saratoga.
La Verdad couldn't make the lead in her last contest, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; that's troubling. Some have blamed the mud, which sounds reasonable until you consider that La Verdad had won all of her previous five efforts on an off track. La Verdad certainly worked well on the 17th; but that was her only work since the Honorable Miss. If La Verdad rebounds to her prior form she wins here; but there are enough question marks here to suggest that La Verdad may not be in her best shape.
The C's are everyone else. As I don't believe that this field contains any standouts, this one looks to be a wide open affair.
RACE 12 - The Travers (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Dirt
A’s
# 2 Bayern (ML 2-1)
# 6 Tonalist (ML 3-1)
# 7 Wicked Strong (ML 7-2)
# 10 Mr Speaker (ML 10-1)
C’s
# 1 Commanding Curve (ML 15-1)
# 3 Charge Now (ML 15-1)
# 4 V. E. Day (ML 15-1)
# 5 Viva Majorca (ML 20-1)
# 8 Kid Cruz (ML 12-1)
# 9 Ulanbator (ML 30-1)
Bayern is the early speed here, and a repeat of either of his two prior efforts will see him run the rest of this field off their feet. Can Bayern make ten furlongs? I don't see why not. His sire was Offlee Wild, who made ten furlongs while winning the 2005 Suburban Handicap against a field that included Funny Cide. Bayern's broodmare sire is Thunder Gulch, winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, along with the 1995 running of this event. So I have no concerns about Bayern making ten furlongs; my concern is with Bayern maintaining the early lead. Because that's the real problem with horses like Bayern: they can only run on the lead; they can't rate. Once they're passed, they're done. So if you think Bayern can make a clear early lead here, you can probably single him in this leg and be done. But if you think a blinkered Wicked Strong can pressure Bayern earlier and keep him from getting comfortable on the front end, then you'll see that this event can potentially go in several different directions.
Wicked Strong donned blinkers for the first time last time out, raced up on the pace, and won the Grade 2 Jim Dandy by daylight. Since Wicked Strong had been a prior Grade 1 winner, it's not really accurate to say that he took a step forward with the new equipment; but it is fair to say that Wicked Strong added a new dimension to his game, one that will suit him well here, as he needs to stay close enough to Bayern to keep that one from leading the field from gate to wire.
Tonalist won the Grade 2 Peter Pan in the slop, and then got up just in time to hit the wire a head in front of Commission in the Belmont Stakes, finishing less than two lengths ahead of the three footed California Chrome. Last time out Tonalist had the length of the stretch to get by Wicked Strong but could not. I expect Tonalist to improve off that last effort; even more so if the main track fails to dry by the time this contest is run.
Mr Speaker is the only runner in this field with a victory in a race at exactly ten furlongs, albeit on grass. Mr Speaker is also one of only four Grade 1 winners in this field. In addition to being a Grade 1 winner, Mr Speaker is a multiple Graded Stakes winner. He has a dirt pedigree and has been working well over the main track. Mr Speaker may not be Animal Kingdom, and I certainly don’t think that he’s a more likely winner than either Bayern or Wicked Strong; but I do think that Mr Speaker is a legitimate contender, and his stock goes up if the early pace completely falls apart.
The C's are everyone else. If Wicked Strong and Tonalist have to go after Bayern early there's a significant chance that they could all cook each other on the front end. If that happens, this could be anyone's race, as there are several quality closers here.
OK, that's the analysis. We're going to shake things up a bit today. As I think the first two legs of this contest will be more formful than the latter two, I'm going to punch tickets that reflect that opinion. But I'm also going to be holding a ticket that covers the possibility that the Travers runs exactly as it looks on paper, and thus spread a little wider in the middle events. It means going over our usual budget, but I really like our chances of connecting here. So with that we get:
A Entries in first half; Everyone in second half
$0.50 P4: 7 with 8 with ALL with ALL $40.00
A and C Entries in first half; A Entries in second half
$0.50 P4: 3,4,7 with 4,7,8 with 4,5,6 with 2,6,7,10 $54.00
Formful Ballston Spa and Travers Ticket
$0.50 P4: 7 with 2,4,6,7,8 with 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2,7 $30.00
Total: $124.00
Post Time for Race 9 is 3:59 EDT / 12:59 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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