RACE 1 - (F) Clm $16k - Eight Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 7 No Tricks for Jack (ML 5-2)
C's
# 1 Rosewhitenblue (ML 7-2)
# 4 Thermal Nermal (ML 3-1) has been scratched.
No Tricks for Jack won at this level last time out at the Oak Tree meet at Pleasanton. Throw out the race two back, which was a sprint and at a higher class level, and No Tricks for Jack has run three routes at this class level, and has finished in the money in all three. Rosewhitenblue has finished in the money ten out of fourteen tries on synthetic surfaces, and has shown the ability to be competitive at this class level.
RACE 2 - MSW - Eight Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 1 Spring Action (ML 3-1)
# 7 Snuggley Bear (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 2 Anxious Times (ML 5-1)
# 5 Badasmywifeletsmeb (ML 10-1)
Spring Action took the Show at this level in his last start, also a turf route. Snuggley Bear is taking his eleventh shot at breaking his maiden; not a good sign. But only three of his previous ten starts were on the grass, and he finished in the money in all three. To put an even finer point on it, only one of Snuggley Bear's prior starts was a turf route, and he took the Place in that contest.
Action Times is by Tiznow out of a Storm Cat mare, so he shouldn't have any problems with his first career route (indeed, his Tomlinson Rating for the distance is the best in this field). Action Times has also been working well over the main track at Del Mar; perhaps he's better suited to the Polytrack?
Badasmywifeletsmeb has no business being on this ticket, expect for the fact that he's sired by Unusual Heat, and for whatever reason the progeny of Unusual Heat tend to do ridiculously well on this turf course.
RACE 3 - Clm $16k N2L - Five and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 2 Pressure Time (ML 3-1)
# 3 World Famous Sam T (ML 4-1)
# 9 Tribal Dude (ML 7-2)
C's
None
Pressure Time gets some class relief here, and the workout on 8/2 suggests that the synthetic surface should not be a problem. World Famous Sam T was a winner in his only prior try on a synthetic surface.
Tribal Dude showed that sometimes the thirteenth time's the charm, finally getting a win in what was (not so coincidentally) a race in which he ran for the lowest price tage of his career. Tribal Dude's form looks much better when you consider that he is is one-for-two in his career on synthetic surfaces, and undefeated in his solo effort on this main track. I like that Tribal Dude got the win without earning a new career-best Beyer Speed Figure, and I think he's well suited to today's class level.
RACE 4 - MSW - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 1 Calculator (ML 9-2)
# 2 Iron Fist (ML 7-2)
# 3 Om (ML 15-1)
# 6 American Pharoah (ML 5-2)
C’s
# 4 One Lucky Dane (ML 8-1)
# 8 Daddy D T (ML 5-1)
Calculator missed by a length of graduating in his debut over this main track, and owns the best last out Beyer Speed Figure in the field.
Iron Fist has that very impressive seven figure price tag that he was purchased for at auction last year, not to mention the best Tomlinson Rating for the distance in the field. But while he made up a lot of ground in his debut, Iron Fist runs for Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, whose horses tend to do better their first time out as opposed to when they have to try again.
Om is the only experienced runner in this field to have shown early speed in his debut. In addition, Om has been working well over this main track since that first time effort. There are others here that I prefer more, but I don't want to sell this one too short.
One Lucky Dane and American Pharoah are a pair of first time starters going for Trainer Bob Baffert, who wins with such about one out of every four tries. One Lucky Dane is by Lookin At Lucky, while American Pharoah is by Pioneerof the Nile; the progeny of both those sires tend to win more than their fair share in their debuts.
Daddy D T is by Scat Daddy, whose progeny win approximately 15% of their debuts. Daddy D T is trained by John Sadler, who wins approximately 24% of the time with first time starters. Daddy D T shows a steady work tab, and should be ready to fire.
RACE 5 - The La Jolla (Grade 3) - Eight and a Half Furlongs Turf
A’s
# 6 Enterprising (ML 2-1)
C’s
# 1 Argyle Cut (ML 7-2)
# 2 Schoolofhardrocks (ML 5-2)
Enterprising is four for five in his career when racing on some California grass, and is the only runner in today's field with a win on this turf course. The only question I see for Enterprising today is how much did that charge from the clouds in the Oceanside take out of him.
Argyle Cut seems to have developed seconditis, settling for the Place in four of his last five starts; the only win in that sequence coming in an Optional Claimer at Golden Gate with Russel Baze on his back when he went off at less than even money.
Schoolofhardrocks defeated older two starts back; but that win was sandwiched between two starts where he disappointed as the Post Time Favorite.
OK, that's the analysis. Playing our tickets via the Crist method we get:
All A Entries
$1.00 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $24.00
A's with One C
$0.50 P5: 1 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 2,5 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 6 $12.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 4,8 with 6 $6.00
$0.50 P5: 7 with 1,7 with 2,3,9 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2 $24.00
Total: $78.00
Post Time for Race 1 is 5:05 EDT / 2:05 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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