RACE 8 - (F) ALW N1X - Eight Furlongs Turf
A's
# 4 Burning Arch (Morning Line 6-1)
# 8 Burns Turn (ML 7-2)
# 9 Al Freej (ML 6-1)
C's
None
Burning Arch broke her maiden her last time out, but this isn't her first time against winners, as she competed in the Grade 3 Senorita back in June. Burning Arch is the only runner in this field with a Win over the Jimmy Durante Turf Course (Zanbo was another, but she did not draw in off the Also Eligibles list), and Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer does a fine job of placing his runners who graduated last time out, winning over a quarter of the time with such.
Burns Turn moves up from the training ranks, where she has done well enough finding the Winners' Circle. Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard Burns Turn last time out when she won here on the Polytrack, gets the mount again today.
Al Freej did not fare well in her North American debut her last time out; perhaps she needed the race. Trainer Mike Pender wins with approximately 24% of his runners who are going second time off a layoff. I expect a much improved effort.
# 10 Baruta (ML 5-2) was the Post Time favorite in each of her five previous races, and she took the Place in all five. Maybe today is the day that she finally decides not to hang at the wire; if so, then this ticket will turn to trash, as I have no intention of using Baruta in my play today.
RACE 9 - The Pat O'Brien (Grade 2) - Seven Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 2 Fed Biz (ML 2-1)
# 5 Goldencents (ML 5-2)
# 7 Big Macher (ML 3-2)
C’s
None
I don't expect any surprises here, as I see this contest as being very formful. Last year's edition of this event saw Fed Biz getting up late to pass Goldencents approaching the wire; as both these runners are coming into today's race in shape, I see no reason why they couldn't form the Quinella yet again. Big Macher misses by just a half length of coming into this contest with three straight Graded Stakes wins (four straight wins overall); obviously he belongs, and is just as likely a winner today as the other two top contenders.
RACE 10 - The Pacific Classic (Grade 1) - Ten Furlongs Synthetic
A’s
# 7 Majestic Harbor (ML 9-2)
# 9 Clubhouse Ride (ML 8-1)
# 11 Shared Belief (ML 5-2)
C’s
None
Majestic Harbor easily took the Grade 1 Used To Be Hollywood Gold Cup his last time out, winning by over a half dozen lengths. The question is will that dirt form transfer to the synthetic today.
Clubhouse Ride took the Place behind Majestic Harbor in the Hey Stop Calling It Hollywood Gold Cup last time out. Clubhouse Ride lost ground in the stretch that day; and I like what Trainer Craig Lewis has done since that event. In an attempt to build Clubhouse Ride's stamina, Lewis has given his runner three seven furlong workouts along with one eight furlong workout. Will the extended works do the trick? We'll know for sure about two minutes after Post Time.
Shared Belief is a perfect five-for-five for his career, with four of those victories coming on a synthetic surface. Shared Belief and Clubhouse Ride are both sired by Candy Ride (Arg) who won this event exactly eleven years ago today, August 24, 2003.
# 5 Game On Dude (ML 3-1) is, sad to say, no longer the horse he once was. The Dude has disappointed as the Post Time Favorite in five of his last six starts. Game On Dude simply can no longer win without getting loose on the lead early; and I just don't see that happening today.
RACE 11 - Clm $16k N2L - Six and a Half Furlongs Synthetic
A's
# 1 Industry Leader (ML 9-2)
# 4 Wholly Hughes (ML 8-1)
# 5 Navarre (ML 6-1)
# 6 Charisma Code (ML 8-1)
# 12 World Famous Sam T (ML 5-1)
C's
None
Industry Leader was up near the pace in each of his last two starts against more expensive; perhaps he can be speed on the rail today. Wholly Hughes took the Place at this class level over this track last time out. Navarre goes first off the claim for Trainer Craig Dollase, who wins approximately 23% of the time with such.
Charisma Code is a perfect one-for-one in his career at the six and a half furlong distance. Charisma Code will be getting some class relief today. World Famous Sam T set the pace at this class level last time out before running out of gas; perhaps today, with blinkers off, he holds something in reserve until he gets to the wire.
OK, that's the analysis. You'll notice I have only "A" Selections today. This does not represent a change in strategy, but rather reflects my opinion that the contenders in each leg were evenly matched (actually, there was one leg where I could have split between "A's" and "C's"; but splitting on just one leg means you're still covering all horses on all tickets). So with that, we get just one ticket:
All A Entries
$0.50 P4: 4,8,9 with 2,5,7 with 7,9,11 with 1,4,5,6,12 $67.50
Total: $67.50
Post Time for Race 8 is 7:37 EDT / 4:37 PDT. Good luck to all.
Peace and Love,
Jimbo
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